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Lost in the Sauce: Russia hacks U.S. government, congratulates Biden; Trump silent.
Welcome to Lost in the Sauce, keeping you caught up on political and legal news that often gets buried in distractions and theater… or a global health crisis. Housekeeping:
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Russia
Russian government hackers breached numerous U.S. agencies, including the Treasury, Commerce, and Homeland Security Departments, in a campaign that began as early as Spring 2020. CISA and the FBI are investigating, but officials say it is “too soon to tell how damaging the attacks were and how much material was lost.”
The global campaign, investigators now believe, involved the hackers inserting their code into periodic updates of software used to manage networks by a company called SolarWinds. Its products are widely used in corporate and federal networks, and the malware was carefully minimized to avoid detection.
Though the initial intrusion occurred earlier this year, Trump has decimated the cybersecurity arm of the federal government and failed to nominate confirmable leaders of Homeland Security. Last month, Trump fired the Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Christopher Krebs, for refusing to undermine the election. Around the same time, Assistant Director for Cybersecurity at DHS Bryan Ware and Deputy Director of CISA Matt Travis were also forced out.
DHS does not have a Senate-confirmed Secretary, Deputy Secretary, General Counsel, or Undersecretary for Management.
Additionally, there is no White House cybersecurity coordinator, no State Dept. cybersecurity coordinator, the National Security Agency Director is leaving on a romantic vacation in Europe, and the NSA general counsel is former Devin Nunes staffer Michael Ellis.
Finally, note that Russia has been behind hacks that knocked major U.S. hospitals offline during the pandemic and targeted vaccine makers across the world. In the lead up to the election last month, Russian hackers focused their attacks on American hospitals, often demanding a ransom to restore their systems. According to Microsoft, Russia and North Korea targeted "seven prominent companies directly involved in researching vaccines and treatments for COVID-19" around the world. Russia’s FSB toxins team poisoned the opposition activist Alexei Navalny in August, after secretly following him on multiple previous trips. The squad shadowed him to more than 30 destinations on overlapping flights in an operation that began in 2017.
items recovered from Room 239 at the Xander Hotel were taken to Germany on the same medevac plane as Navalny. At least two subsequently tested positive for traces of Novichok, including a water bottle from the hotel room.
Appointees and nominees
The Senate voted on Wednesday to confirm three members to the Federal Election Commission, fully staffing the agency for the first time in nearly four years. It is also the first time the commission has had a voting quorum - enough to conduct business - since July, when it had four members for just 29 days. The new commissioners are Shana Broussard (D), current FEC attorney and the first Black commissioner; Sean Cooksey (R), general counsel for GOP Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri; and Allen Dickerson (R), legal director of the Institute for Free Speech, which opposes campaign finance restrictions.
They join Ellen Weintraub (D) and Steven Walther (I), both appointed by George W. Bush, and James Trainor III (R), appointed by Trump. The FEC is designed to contain three Democrats and three Republicans. No party is permitted to have more than three members.
Carl Tobias, a professor at the University of Richmond School of Law: "These are last-minute kind of pushes by the outgoing administration and the Republican Senate majority," he said, meant to ensure that "the commission [will] not be very effective heading into Biden's presidency… It does seem like there is likely to be gridlock and the commission is not likely to do very much that's substantive."
Michael Pack removed the acting director of Voice of America on Tuesday, installing a controversial ally in his place. Pack, CEO of parent organization U.S. Agency for Global Media, replaced VOA director Elez Biberaj with George W. Bush-era director Robert Reilly. The move immediately garnered criticism as Reilly has an extensive history of homophobic and anti-Islamic writing.
NPR: Reilly's 2014 book, "Making Gay Okay: How Rationalizing Homosexual Behavior Is Changing Everything," argues strongly against gay marriage. In public remarks, he said at least a murderer or a consumer of pornography ultimately regrets what he or she does, but asked, "What if you organize your life around something that is wrong?" NYT: President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. is likely to replace Mr. Pack once he assumes office, agency officials said. But Mr. Reilly may be harder to remove if language in the National Defense Authorization Act, a defense spending bill passed by the House, is signed into law that requires the U.S. Agency for Global Media’s chief executive to gain approval from an advisory board before replacing the head of a media network under their purview.
An investigation by the Veterans Affairs inspector general found that Secretary Robert Wilkie worked to discredit a congressional aide who said she was sexually assaulted in a VA hospital. According to the IG, Wilkie “obtained potentially damaging information about the veteran’s past,” leading his staff to pressure VA police to scrutinize her and try to discredit her in the media. The report (PDF) states Wilkie received this information from Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), a former Navy SEAL, who served in the same unit as the female veteran, Andrea Goldstein. Crenshaw refused to cooperate with the investigation. Further reading on appointees:
State Department acting Inspector General Matthew Klimow found that the majority of trips by Susan Pompeo over a two-year period had taken place without written approval from the State Department, despite the fact that her trips were considered official travel and paid for by US taxpayers.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has spent at least $43,000 in taxpayer funds to host a series of intimate dinners called the “Madison Dinners.” The guest lists for about two dozen of the dinners, held between 2018 and 2020, included American business leaders and conservative political officials.
On his way out of office, Trump rewards some supporters and like-minded allies with the perks and prestige that come with serving on federal advisory boards and commissions. He has appointed Kellyanne Conway to the board of visitors of the U.S. Air Force Academy; Elaine Chao, Lynn Friess (the wife of Republican megadonor Foster Friess, and Pamella DeVos (Education Secretary Betsy DeVos’ sister-in-law) as members of the board of trustees of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts; Matt Schlapp, chairman of the American Conservative Union and husband of former White House Communications Director Mercedes Schlapp, to the Library of Congress Trust Fund Board.
Retired Army Col. Douglas Macgregor - a senior adviser at the Pentagon with a history of disparaging refugees and immigrants, spreading conspiracies, and other controversial rhetoric - was nominated by Trump for a spot on West Point's advisory board.
The Pentagon appointed China-hawk Michael Pillsbury to serve as the Chair of the Defense Policy Board, after purging members. In October, the Financial Times revealed that Pillsbury helped funnel dirt on Hunter Biden from China to the Trump administration.
The Office of Special Counsel issued a report finding that White House trade adviser Peter Navarro repeatedly violated the Hatch Act by using his official authority for campaign purposes.
Congress
The Senate approved the $740 billion bill National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) with a veto-proof majority, sending it to the president’s desk on Friday. Trump has threatened to veto the bill because it doesn't include a repeal of Section 230, but there are other rebukes of Trump’s policies including provisions to limit how much money Trump can move around for his border wall and another that would require the military to rename bases that were named after figures from the Confederacy. Crucially, the NDAA also contains provisions that require anonymous shell companies to disclose their true owners, an aspect that may make it harder for Trump and his associates to move or hide money without scrutiny. The law requires anyone registering a new company to disclose the name, address, and date of birth of the real owners, and an identification number for each owner, such as a driver’s license or passport number. The law also applies to corporations and LLCs that already exist. Sen. Ron Johnson, Chairman of the Senate Homeland Security Committee, has scheduled a hearing on Wednesday to examine alleged election “irregularities.” The meeting, two days after electors cast their votes, will feature former independent counsel Ken Starr and attorneys in key battleground states. Johnson says the hearings will help him decide whether to join House Republicans to challenge the electoral results on the floor in January.
"The election's not over," Johnson said when asked if he would run again, referring to the November election that Biden won. Asked when he would make a decision, Johnson said: "Once the election is over."
At a hearing on the pandemic last week, Sen. Ron Johnson invited a vaccine skeptic, a critic of masks, and two doctors who have promoted hydroxychloroquine to treat the coronavirus. Democrats boycotted the hearing and numerous Republicans opted not to ask questions; only Sens. Johnson, Rand Paul, and Josh Hawley took part.
“The panelists have been selected for their political, not their medical views. And for that reason the composition of the panel creates a false and terribly harmful impression of the scientific and medical consensus,” said ranking Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, in his opening statement before leaving the hearing.
As an example of the unfounded claims presented at the hearing, Dr. Jane Orient said “Maybe instead of putting masks on everybody, we should be putting lids on the toilet or pouring Clorox into it before you flush it.” Dr. Ramin Oskoui told the committee that wearing masks, social distancing, and quarantining do not work. Further reading on Congress:
Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) and Mark Kelly (D-AZ) voted with Republicans against two resolutions aiming to block the Trump White House's sale of $23 billion worth of F-35s, Reaper drones, and missiles to the United Arab Emirates.
On her way out of Congress, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) joined Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) to introduce an anti-transgender bill. According to the two representatives, the bill - called the “Protect Women’s Sports Act” - seeks to clarify that Title IX protections for female athletes are based on “biological sex as determined at birth by a physician.”
Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) blocked legislation to establish a National Museum of the American Latino and American Women's History Museum as part of the Smithsonian Institution. Lee asserted the bill, which had bipartisan support, would “further divide an already divided nation with an array of segregated, separate-but-equal museums for hyphenated identity groups” (clip).
Self-dealing and stock trades: “While Kelly Loeffler Opposed New COVID Aid, Her Husband’s Firm Sought to Profit Off the Pandemic,” “How Kelly Loeffler’s Firm Facilitated an Enron-Like Scandal,” “Sen. David Perdue Sold His Home to a Finance Industry Official Whose Organization Was Lobbying the Senate,” “Perdue diverted military money to Trump's wall — while profiting from his own Pentagon bill.”
Miscellaneous
The FBI has subpoenaed Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton after his senior staff reported him for alleged corruption, bribery, and abuse of office. All seven whistleblowers have since been fired by Paxton. Four sued Paxton last month in Travis County District Court, claiming they were fired in retaliation, threatened, intimidated and falsely smeared by Paxton.
Some believe that Paxton filed his failed election lawsuit as a way to gain Trump’s favor and obtain a pardon before he leaves office. Remember, Paxton was already under indictment on felony securities fraud charges before the most recent subpoena.
Former CISA Director Christopher Krebs sued the Trump campaign and one of its lawyers, Joseph diGenova, for defamation. “He should be drawn and quartered, taken out at dawn and shot,” diGenova said of Krebs. A three-judge panel of the 11th Circuit (two Trump appointees and an Obama appointee) denied the appeal of whistleblower Reality Winner, ruling she will remain in federal prison despite having pre-existing medical conditions and contracting Covid-19. Other court cases: “Supreme Court Says Muslim Men Can Sue FBI Agents In No-Fly List Case,” NPR. “A Michigan judge rules companies don't have to serve gay customers. The attorney general says she'll appeal,” CNN. “Abortion medication restrictions remain blocked during pandemic, judge rules,” WaPo. Two whistle-blowers have accused contractors building Trump’s border wall of smuggling armed Mexican security teams into the United States to guard construction sites. The complaint also states that the company submitted fraudulent invoices to the federal government, including for diesel fuel and overstating their costs. U.S. border officials have expelled at least 66 unaccompanied migrant children without a court hearing or asylum interview since a federal judge ordered them to stop the practice. Federal regulators and West Virginia agencies are rewriting environmental rules again to pave the way for construction of a major natural gas pipeline across Appalachia, even after an appeals court blocked the pipeline for the second time. The Trump administration finalized a rule that could make it more difficult to enact public health protections, by changing the way the Environmental Protection Agency calculates the costs and benefits of new limits on air pollution. World: “Trump administration helped GOP donors get Syria oil deal” and “The Israel-Morocco peace deal Donald Trump has brokered is risky: His recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara could lead to war.”
With the Western Collective's unprovoked attack across the border as negotiations barely began, we are left in a difficult situation to deal with the Western Collective's renewed threat. As things progress, we have started looking at the different operation theaters. We have begun devising a series of plans that should bring a victory against the Western Collective.
We are sitting on a bomb of public anger. The loss of our cities, similar to using a bigger fire to put out a smaller fire, managed to snuff out a large portion of the riots in the resulting shock. However, this shock can only remain so long as people start to seek answers and retribution to the cause. Already this is occurring and can be best illustrated in the retribution skirmishes in Denver. However, like a bomb, the energy from it can be redirected if properly deflected. Those same skirmishes in Denver show that there is a distinct emotional pathway that can be exploited to redirect this energy from destructive to the state to constructive for the state. To begin, after an emergency declaration of Air Incursions by the Western Collective martial law and a curfew will be declared and a recommendation to tune into local news and radio for updates and warning. After an initial run on stores, most of the population will return to their homes paranoid of a nuclear strike by the WC. Paranoia is a strong tool as it otherwise keeps people guessing at their next move. What to do, when to do it, can they do it, if they can do anything about it. This indecisiveness aims to keep people indoors and off the streets in the initial days of the renewed conflict. During this indecisiveness, as people feverishly tune into their radio, news, and internet for information regarding the situation, we have a unique opportunity that people will be tuning in to the most up to date and verifiable local news sources for their information regarding their wellbeing and safety. Partnering with many of these sites to maintain a relatively continuous degree of accurate information we can slowly affect the narrative with state-sponsored hit pieces and disinformation targeting the WC's morality, sanity, and legitimacy. Once paranoia and shock dissipate in our population, our internal campaign should redirect most of the hate and resentment away from the SLFR and towards the WC. While a stopgap for a slow-burning problem, and potentially larger ones in the future this will ensure that the spirit of our nation is willing and ready to "Remember Salt Lake" and avenge the unfortunate dead. Morality- The Western Collective is in itself an immoral nation. Military recon feeds, interviews, and live feeds from Denver will be used to draw parallels from Denver to the siege of Leningrad. Highlighting the lack of dogs, cats, birds, and eventually people we can show that instead of being besieged by an army more than willing to let them starve, Denver is instead occupied by a corporate army who have taken active measures to prevent food and aid in and allow people to escape the prison city that Denver has become. Interviews from survivors who have managed to escape Denver to our aid stations situated outside the border will take place in order to highlight what is effectively an oligarchic regime within Denver. Tales of woe, crime, and starvation will be strung together to show the WC as effectively the North Korea of the United States as defectors risk everything to seek freedom outside the hell it's becoming. Testimonials from soldiers manning the aid stations and interviews will also be used to paint light on the plight these citizens have endured within Denver at the treatment of their own government. Sanity- The Western Collective is in itself an insane nation. In all rules of war, one of the biggest concerns has been the unrestricted targeting of civilian population centers. A rule that the Western Collective has casually thrown away in the wake of its other humanitarian crimes. Surely, a nation that is willing to throw away millions of its own citizens lives through forced starvation and those of an enemy through cruel and unlawful means truly cannot claim sanity as it so casually throws away the lives of non-combatants in order to further its goals to wound the soul of a nation rather than to repel it. Legitimacy- The Western Collective is in itself an illegitimate nation. The power of the people through democratic principle has been tossed completely out the window in terms of the Western Collective. After the split of the United States, the Western Collective has organized itself more as an unruly mob, rather than of a structured nation. No elections have been called, no protocol set, does the Western Collective even have a government? If not, then who is making the brash statements against our nation? If they are who they say they are, from where do they draw their legitimacy? The entire political structure and landscape of the Western Collective are pockmarked with varying ideologies on every end of the spectrum ranging from moderate to radical. In the Western Collective, what reigns seems to be nothing more than anarchy and some vague form of "collective governance". This is not in the way how any legitimate nation acts. Counter Intelligence- As to their own campaign against us, they've published a half brokered a peace deal in an effort to smear us. However, without context, certain conclusions and inferences can be drawn by our savvy news folk. Highlighting the WC side of the deal as one that only aims to serve the needs of the WC and subjugate large portions of the western SLFR population into immoral, insane, and illegitimate nation such as the Western Collective. On the other hand, the SLFR response to the deal can clearly be seen as a deal from the maximalist school and one in which strong negotiation is to be countered and backed down. Clearly, the Western Collective has no room for anything other than the subjugation of the SLFR people to a bandit state. As the Western Collective is set to be set in a state where a large degree of their power infrastructure and thus communication infrastructure (see below) a prolonged psywar campaign on the part of the Western Collective can only remain spotty and at best. However, our e-war agents will be on the lookout to counter the misinformation campaign of the WC wherever it might show it's ugly head. On the flip side of this, we can begin distributing this information to the limited population of the Western Collective who might be tuned into our social media. The hope is that this will further erode the Western Collectives populace's spirit as they begin to question the morality, sanity, and legitimacy of their own government. The Armed Forces- This effect can likewise be translated over to our armed forces as the shock of the situation begins to wear off. Most military units act as a very close-knit unit with many forming lasting bonds after the service many of our service members have either first or second-hand experience from the loss of cities across our nation. Those servicemen and women who've lossed have the most to gain out of direct action against the WC as even the stress of Combat Operations can be considered cathartic. Similarly, those soldiers within this tight-knit bond have been wronged by the WC as their brothers and sisters in arms have been wronged. One of the greatest examples that there is such sentiment within the armed forces are the attacks in Denver. This shows that such an emotional pathway exists for us to direct our soldiers' energy into and so we can begin a campaign of suggestion within the ranks. Minor things being placed into the common lexicon of soldiers and commanders can have a powerful effect when applied correctly. Order's being followed by phrases as simple as "Avenge Salt Lake/Santa Fe, Langley, Richmond, etc", "Protect our Home", "God Bless the SLFR and the 410" can be used to invoke anger amongst our troops as the enemy ahead is willing to take from them everything. By applying this subtly and slowly through the ranks, orders gain just a touch more authority as the cause being fought for becomes that ever more personal.
Strategic Shortages:
We have access to most Western Collective's water, food, and power resources as it stands. As such, we will be cutting off the supply of all food, utility, and provisional aid for the indefinite future. Worsening food shortages and protests should economically disrupt the Western Collective and create a runaway effect. As a result, their internal stability should continue to decline, morale drop, and personnel to become sluggish as people continue to starve. This disruption will force the WC economy to bleed gasoline as generators and power stations are overworked.
Ground Forces:
Primary Phase- As of the moment, no attempt by the Western Collective military has been made to corral the SLFR ground forces within the contested border regions nor assail them beyond this. Thanks to this degree of flexibility in the contested areas, we have a golden opportunity to capitalize on our gains. This gain comes in the form of a large portion of our artillery and mobile air defenses being well within striking distance of the two main airbases from which that sorties are carried out. This gives us the opportunity to commit to a series of massed artillery (gun and rocket) barrages and drone strikes utilizing the M777 (M795 rounds,M692/M731(used at the very end ), M109 (RAP rounds) primarily, and M142 Himars (ATAcaMs (Block IVA) and switchblade 300 to target and ultimately bomb out the Western Collective Airbases (with a focus on rocket artillery targeting the Arizona airbase due to gun artillery range concerns) targeting mainly ATCT, runway operations, and aircraft shelters. In addition, a portion of our Himars ATAcaMs will similarly be targeting the aircraft carriers as part of their mission to disrupt sortie time from the sea or (on the off chance one manages to hit due to the apparent lack of escort) score an operational kill. During this same time, thanks to our forces in the contested territories, we can begin some interdiction of enemy planes attempting to penetrate the border and perform ground attack missions. Back at the homefront, thanks to the purchase of patriot systems batteries before the initial conflict erupted, we sit on a rather large supply of patriot batteries and reserve troops. Once the initial order to scramble fighters from Hill and Creech AFB is given, those patriot units in reserve will similarly be scrambled from army and air bases all across the SLFR. During emergency exercises in setting up a patriot weapon system after air transport, military intelligence surmised that a Patriot missile system could be assembled and put into operation within 12-15 minutes from touchdown. Similarly, we intend to truck many of these systems (thankfully completed as we haven't had a real reason to lift them via air freight) to locations around Creech and Hills AFB. While potentially not enough to stave off a WC incursion by themselves, they still offer the potential to harass, disrupt, or waylay enemy strikes into SLFR territory. However, no delusions to the system's effectiveness are granted (unless the WC does something like fly bombers ahead of their fighter escort or leave air refueling craft outside a similar guard). With mass barrages taking place on the airbases and carriers (given an RPM average of around 5 for the guns) over the course of 10 minutes, we believe this to be significant in disabling (or disrupting) sorties from these airbases. At 10 minutes, our forces within the contested regions will begin a fighting withdrawal towards SLFR controlled territories utilizing forward mortar positions and artillery to deliver smoke and artillery to forestall any advance by forces within the contested regions. Once our troops have regrouped at the border and consolidated, we can begin preparations for a counter-attack in the contested territories. Secondary Phase- Once our ground forces have consolidated themselves, and assuming the contesting airbases have been significantly shelled to the point where drone recon can assure operational kill, we can begin to look towards regaining lost territory in a counter-attack. With artillery massed in the mountains and hills (primarily), our ground forces will participate in a creeping barrage followed by infantry and IFV/APC support with our troops on the ground providing intelligence back as forward observers. While this should be enough to get us into the first districts of the townships we intend to occupy, fire support will then switch to fire on request to better service our forces on the ground with targeting data relayed via drone/forward observers. In addition, as troops move away from the mountains, mortars will become increasingly valuable in the urban environment, and mortar teams will establish several mobile forward-firing positions. As the fighting continues into the urban landscape, our forces must observe a slow and cautious approach. We have a distinct disadvantage as we advance further into the enemy-controlled territory. In addition, we can take special precautions that will aid in CQB. Secondary Operations- Secondary operations are planned to be mission-specific and carried out only if 80% of operational success is being met within their current area unless otherwise noted. (Specific Logistics Operations (WA)): We maintain a large force in Northern Washington that, at the moment, finds itself having to bring supplies through contested territory or go without. In an effort to change this, our tilt-rotor craft will begin flying supplies, troops, and equipment in and out of the AO. While normally risky with air coverage being low to lax in the area, the team lead has assured that the maneuverability of the tilt-rotor craft should allow the flight to easily maneuver through the Cascades making us of radar shadow and limited visibility in sighting the craft. Taking off from the Yakima Firing Center, these pilots will be in charge of keeping the northern troops supplied in the event of a counter-attack or during their assault. (This operation is to occur regardless of operational success). (Highway 20 (WA)): While the above air supply should keep our troops in fighting fit order, it still poses a rather risky venture when it comes to actually maintain that supply route. In order to alleviate this strain, a portion of the troops in the north will attempt to establish a secure corridor through Highway 20 over the Cascades. Utilizing recon drone flights ahead of any such operation, we hope to minimize the risk of an ambush to troops moving through the corridor. The populations through the corridor will be contacted by advance recon before moving through their area in an effort to secure their limited support in doing nothing. As they are effectively isolated along Highway 20 offers of food, limited medical supplies, and basic necessities will be offered in exchange for their cooperation. Tactical Considerations- Weapons: As we advance, we are most likely to find contention with more Marines than militia and regular army as forces cycle out. Because of this, and knowing the MTV and SPC armor capabilities most commonly used by the Marine core, we can tailor ammo accordingly to favor armor-piercing rounds in the ammo mix. Going into a city fighting scenario, we will have to make use of the best tools on hand for our forces going in. This happens to be the AT4, a weapon we will be utilizing for in close engagements, asset denial, and asset destruction. Additional Weapons: To further enhance our soldiers' capabilities, the M202 Flash has been authorized to be allocated as needed one per rifle platoon in addition to the rifleman's standard weapon. Blowing the dust off these weapons should give our riflemen the tactical edge when it comes to building clearing, digging out entrenched units, and rapid explosive deployment. While the Flash cannot be deployed in vast numbers, it should have a measurable effect on the conflict where deployed. Explosives: Testing and deployment of the Scalable Offensive Hand Grenade was begun in 2010, and now it's time to put them to use thanks to their ability to deliver more accurate explosive yields to a target. Gear: With most urban warfare, the night is both an advantage and disadvantage to either side, depending on their equipment. Our troops conducting night operations will be issued NVGs and Dazzlers to make use of the night best while diminishing the advantage it gives to the enemy. Additionally, heavier protective plate carriers and rigs will be issued on an as-needed basis to keep casualty rates low well in the urban environment. In addition, small drones will be issued to our forces going forward to better make use of unmanned recon, namely the Black Hornet Nano and RQ-11 Raven. Other Considerations: As our forces push forward, we will eventually become more exposed to the defenders as the conflict progresses in an urban environment. As such, molding the city to our benefit must be given priority in the form of constructing firing and sniping positions (basements being some of the best) as well as shelters and fallback routes along covered paths (wall knocked out to the next building/a pathway through subterranean infrastructure, etc.). This should allow our troops to be easily accessible, tactically secure, and easy to construct fallback positions should the situation call for it. [m] please note that any gear listed above is either in addition to or supplementing current rifleman kits and is in no way meant to represent the ONLY equipment being allocated to them. [/m] While we're not sure how far our fighting through the urban centers will get us, we are hoping that through the steady pace set, equipment issued, tactics employed, general lack of direction of the enemy ground forces other than (hold the ground), we can win out the day and push the borders of the contested territory into SLFR occupied and owned domain. Along the periphery of the urban centers, our armored units will be put to work attempting to cordon off soldiers within these urban centers by denying them a safe logistical road in which to bring in supply and release troops. With concerns to ATGMs, AT troops, and armored units similarly acting on the periphery, we will be resorting to short raids rather than long drawn out fights, utilizing smoke rounds and drone support when and where we can. While this might only disrupt supplies into these contested zones, a disruption for us with minimal losses will be an overall win. To wit, commanders at that time will be given authority whether or not to pursue this course of action or maintain a defensive posture. Strategic goals and Considerations- While the total victory against the WC militarily would be ideal, it currently does not exist in the cards in terms of a "quick" war. As such, strategic level goals must be set in order to establish parameters for victory in an effort to bring the WC's government into submission. 1: Denial of infrastructure facilitating WC internal commerce, civilian and military logistics, and government functionality. 2: Denial of military resources through the strategic destruction of Air Bases and Military installations as well as forcing WC forces into a siege. 3: Denial of civilian and military port access by forward howitzer artillery and rocket artillery batteries. Goal one and three are currently being met with goal two still to be decided, however, the situation WC is likely to find themselves will be that of contemporary modern siege warfare. Utilizing models such as the Siege of Homs, Kobanin, and An Khe Sanh we can tactically draw WC forces into the cities as the main aim is to bottle operational forces or create a strategic distraction for forces acting outside these cities and urban landscape to maneuver themselves into more advantageous positions or operations to fulfill strategic level goals.
Navy: TBA
Airforce:
The show's main star will be our air force operating out of Creech AFB, Hill AFB, and Edwards AFB. With the WC making moves to neutralize Creech AFB and Hill AFB, we cannot afford to meet them on "open ground." We must instead utilize our advantage of positioning. Creech: Given the direction, size of the forces, combat range, and support craft being employed to defeat Creech AFB, we give them time to target at around 15-20 minutes (this number is not assuming land-based systems are being used to intercept these aircraft, which, indeed, they are) if a massed attack is planned. If a wave tactic is instead employed, we might likely see the first craft arrive within five minutes. This gives Creech enough time to scramble a single flight before the first of the attack comes (assuming given timetables). As it appears that the WC has opted for a massed attack, given the number of aircraft entering the airspace, we can guess that a portion of our craft on the ground will likely be hit while taking off if these crafts manage to reach Creech. The goal is to waylay the incoming craft with ground defenses and E-War and limited air engagements to supply Creech AFB with time to sort out its full complement. The greatest strength we have here is that the relative areas up to Creech are well within our territory and contains a large concentration of our military equipment, including SHORAD. Effectively, passing through these areas will be a shooting gallery for our air defense units. This massed aircraft concentration only serves draws the ire of every SAM and MANPAD around, especially when it comes to aerial refueling craft. In addition to the shelling from artillery following positive enemy contact, it is hoped that the air defense wall defeats their attempt to penetrate our airspace and will force the enemy pilots to either divert to a better air corridor or suffer a degree of damage/defensive ability as missiles score hits and chaff is expended. The longer we can delay enemy craft, or cause them to tarry, the more fighters Creech and put into the air to hammer these craft. Hill AFB: Hill AFB, perhaps our farthest inland, is an attractive enough target for the Western Collective to attempt to strike. Given the shortest distance between launching airbases/carriers, the limited refueling fleet servicing such massed aircraft, having to pass over the same air defense "wall" as well as mountains, we estimate the shortest time it will take the fastest craft to arrive at Hill AFB to be a little under an hour. While this gives plenty of time, forewarning, and preparation for the oncoming assault to sortie fighters as well as get Strato-Fortresses in the air and launching payloads (more to come) we cannot take the threat lightly and thus will be conducting MITO operations in an effort to get as much of our bomber fleet into the air and into a position to achieve operations goals. Though it's not going to be all peaches and cream as the sheer amount of fighter craft coming to our direction will likely take up the majority of our air reserves to repel (within the confines of a straight dogfight). Our biggest ally in this is time and distance and the servicing of aircraft by refueling aircraft, something we intend to target and take advantage of as they attempt to take off from facilities currently in the course of being bombed as an attempt to pass over our defensive net. If it comes down to it, our air forces will coordinate with ground air defense forces to extend the flight times of craft already at the very edge of their operational range while engaging Hills AFB. While it's impossible to say who will end up victorious, we can spoil their victory by moving our more precious aircraft away from Hills far in advance of incoming enemies. Pulling every trick out of our ass, our advisors have devised a plan that should help to delay and potentially halt the Vanguard of the aircraft approaching Hill AFB. Utilizing our extremely limited supply of QF-16 target drones we can attempt to bait their vanguard into otherwise revealing itself while our forces remain in relative safety. The scheme goes that a single QF-16 will be a patrol course with active radar and a tag registering it as an active combatant. This QF-16 will be shadowed at distance (optimal distance to where active enemy radar might not detect them but friendly passive radar would detect hostiles going active) by two flights of aircraft. With hope, this QF-16 will draw the ire of approaching craft that will attempt to intercept and destroy said decoy craft but in the process reveal their firing position or go to active radar. Assuming the shadowing craft isn't outnumber to the point that engaging would-be suicide (even in a pump and dump situation) our craft should be able to engage from range or at minimum make their target long before they're detected. This is a one-off gambit that might bear fruit or not, so we aren't banking too much hope on it as compared to other conventional strategies. The above strategy, to an extent, can similarly be applied to supplement the saturation campaign currently ongoing (see below). Edwards AFB: Edwards AFB is confusing as it seems to be otherwise being passed up for other targets. While it's altogether likely that launching from this base will cause some degree of contention with some of those traveling to Creech, we have an opportunity to effectively strike at the heart of the WC's carrier fleet through the use of E-War and Anti-Ship missiles. A large concentration of US Carriers is now concentrated in or around California's coast. Utilizing our Growlers and F-16 fleet to launch ADM-160 MALDs, the plan is to create a secure radar jammed air corridor between Edwards AFB and the carrier fleet, at which point our F-35s and F/A-18Es will launch. Through this corridor, the F-35s and F/A-18Es will track far enough to deploy AGM-158C LRASMs against their targets, hopefully scoring a series of decisive strikes against the WC's naval aviation. While this operation is ongoing, craft out of Edwards will begin to reinforce those at Creech and (if the airspace over Edwards and Creech is secured) move North to intercept targets of opportunity flying from Oregon and Washington towards Hills AFB. In support of ground operations, 5 AC-130Js will deploy from Edwards (at night), supporting local operations where they can, and (if the airspace north is secure) one will move to support operations in the North. In addition to helping to secure Creech AFB, our limited flights of F-22’s will be purposed to being hunting for the WC refueling fleet. As these crafts are neither stealthy nor fast, we have no doubt that once contact is made we will be able to further cripple the already overstretched WC refueling efforts. Assisting Stations- Peterson Airforce base has, as it appears, been left relatively unmarked in the nuclear attacks following the initial battles with the WC. As such, this gives us the extremely powerful tool that is NORADs aerospace warning, and control systems to utilize in the coming battle and provide advanced warning of initial aircraft intrusions and massing. Being able to accurately track enemy aircraft, while coordinating and organizing our own in the horribly massed confusion that is the coming dogfight should prove to great advantage to our pilots as well as having Peterson AFB acting as a safe point to refuel and rearm before reentering the conflict. [m] note, without clarification if Peterson AFB was hit with Shriver this will ultimately end rearmament and refueling efforts from within this airbase. However, NORAD maintains a secondary command location within the Cheyanne Mountain Complex that can still provide non-aircraft servicing assistance[/m]
Electronic Warfare:
In coordination with the forces cutting power cables leading into California, our E-War units will begin a campaign of coordinated aggression aimed primarily at the disruption of local power generation and military and civilian radar to either attempt to make craft appear or remain hidden, keeping air controllers in a consistent state of stress and delaying sortie rates further. As the WC has yet to cut many, if any, of the ISP connections between our nations, we can utilize many of the similar pathways they used for intrusion while also attempting over others. Such a disruption could have significant consequences for the WC air campaign as high sortie rates are among the few pillars keeping it together and by breaking one piece of the puzzle, the entire combat picture should collapse in short order. While remote operations on ongoing (as long as regional power remains active), we can continue to attempt to thwart the WC via localized E-Warfare utilizing our ground forces and E-War drones to jam communications, local GPS, and attempt to thwart enemy ground radar allowing our aircraft to operate more freely in the AO and forcing WC craft to use active sensors, painting them as a major target to ground and air missile and sensor systems.
The Big Red Button:
In light of this aggression, it’s time we took back the initiative on the foreign front. Our Stratofortress, once in the air, will begin launching a series of payloads aimed at crippling the WC’s logistics network and continuing to make the war further untenable at the home from: Targets and Payloads: Naval Base San Diego- The principal homeport to the Pacific Fleet, this naval base hosts most of the rearming for the carriers currently being used to harass our bases and forces. To deliver a decisive blow to the WC we will be committing a tactical nuclear strike ( W80 10 kt dialed yield) against the naval yard with 3 nuclear-armed AGM-86 ALCM cruise missiles. National Guard/Army Armories and Equipment Storage Facilities: As the war continues, we must face the reality that men and equipment will win this war at the end of the day. As such, we will be launching several conventional strikes against facilities containing such military equipment based on prior locational knowledge and current recon of the AO. While total destruction of these sites is unattainable (and in the long run unwanted), disruption of the flow of supplies from these facilities will go along way in a campaign of attrition warfare against our foe. I-5 and Highway 101- Splitting the WC will severely cripple their ability to function as a “nation” and united people. As such, we are preparing a similar cruise missile strike (armed with conventional warheads) aimed at targeting bridges along I-5 and Highway 101. The biggest ones being at coordinates 40.509491, -124.121193 , 40.805301, -124.140597, and 40.762070, -122.318664 . These strikes aim to cripple interconnectivity between California, Washington, and Oregon disrupting internal commerce and military maneuvering along the routes. Saturation- The airspace itself we are going to be operating in is VAST and we aim to fill this airspace with enough clutter, decoys, and aircraft to overload enemy sensors and capabilities. Helping to supply this is the already mentioned ADM-160 MALD. Utilizing this to both jam and act as a decoy in the AO, we should be able to overwhelm the enemy’s defense allowing cruise missile payloads to go through and supplementing our fighter’s perceived strength.
Fool Me Twice:
During the course of this defensive operation, we will begin to deploy our ABM missile platforms in an effort to maximize the protection of civilian and military infrastructure. Thankfully, with a large portion of our airbases out of commission, this actually leaves only a few areas to cover in terms of maximizing coverage. Should a follow-up nuclear strike occur it is important to have these systems ready and on alert come what may from our western enemy.
Planning of Failure:
While in the best world we can assume all our plans will come to fruition, assumptions get people killed. Ground Forces (Primary): If the enemy combatants in the area manage to interdict artillery from our side of the border and within the contested regions, the plan is to initiate an early fallback strategy into the mountains and hills and entrench positions while utilizing our massed artillery to halt and forward motion by the WC army. Ground Forces (Secondary): If our soldiers cannot find purchase within the enemy fortified points after the bombardments have taken place, a similar strategy to fallback to the mountainous and hilly terrain and entrench will be taken. Air Forces (Creech): If the situation looks dire but an option for a retreat to Edwards AFB can be managed, all airborne assets will be diverted to Edwards to reinforce operations there. Air Forces (Hills): If the defense fails and the enemy aircraft manage to inflict serious damage to the airbase and aircraft at the base then the aircraft will be given a general order to disperse and land at civilian airfields while awaiting further orders. Air Forces (Edwards): 1: If aircraft do seek to interdict operations at Edwards AFB and local, air, and aircraft defenses are overwhelmed the point of non-function, aircraft will be given a general order to disperse and land at civilian airfields while awaiting further orders. 2: If an effective air corridor cannot be made to establish firing targets at the carriers, then operations will be abandoned with contributing craft being diverted to the defense of Creech AFB and Hills as well as CAS operations. 3: If interdiction efforts against aircraft bound for Creech or Hills cannot be sustained or commanders predict a low success rate, contributing craft will be diverted to aid in local CAS and ground attack efforts as well as local air interdiction. E-War: If our electronic warfare campaign bears no fruit in dismantling the enemies radar coverage, communications, etc then efforts made to strike at the carriers will be waylaid, and contributing craft will be redirected to other missions BRB: If your B-52 fleet manages to be interdicted before they can take off, or in a position where launching munitions is otherwise untenable, they will fly south towards Denver and the air net around it and loiter until such time as Hills AFB is cleared. If this is not met within the flight time of our bombers, they will divert to civilian airports and await further instructions. Fool Me Twice: If our THAAD batteries come under molestation or are otherwise interdicted by enemy aircraft, they are to pull back and await deploying Patriot batteries and deploy behind them (even if under non-optimal conditions).
Planning for Success:
Airwar (general): If our air war is successful in crippling the WC airforce a long-range bombing campaign is authorized utilizing B-2 spirit bombers and B-25 Stratofortress utilizing conventional warheads as well as CAS with A-10s. With a large focus on SEAD and Anti-tank missions, the goal, if we manage an absolute air kill, is to minimize air defenses, armor, and heavy vehicle involvement in future conflicts.
Previous / Next Sykes munched down on some Haribo he had taken from the local corner shop as he sat down next to it’s CCTV setup, the owners having been confirmed MIA. He was technically the man in charge of this field investigation but once he had given initial directions to the various forensic investigators, interviewers, coroners, medics and various others with fingers in the pie he didn’t need to do much else - the higher ups seemed to want to do the marshaling from their comfortable offices at Thames House themselves while the local constabulary cordoned off the whole area, citing ‘flash flooding’ as the reason. The cop, one Police Constable James Pickard he had questioned himself before letting his junior field agents have their turn at piecing this whole thing together, but Sykes had as clear a picture of what happened as he was going to get. This new, unknown enemy arrived via a portal, and monsters not of this world killed some of the residents but took others. The ‘how’s’ and ‘why’s would hopefully be figured out by the smarter people. The ‘what next’ was what he was worrying about. Sykes was going through the CCTV looking for any scraps of info he could find but his mind was distracted. “This world is already ours human” What did that woman even mean? He was interrupted by Maynard, one of his analysts who plodded through the shop door, accompanied by the ringing of the little bell above. “Sir, Director Pierce wants to speak to you.” “Thanks Tim, please ensure I get some privacy” “Yes sir.” This was the call Sykes was waiting for. “Director. This is Sykes.” “Thank you for everything tonight Bill, from what we’ve seen the rescue operation is considered a success and casualties were minimized by your operation.” “Yes sir, no civilian deaths since we landed and Bravo-2 is expected to fully recover from his...axe wound” “Excellent. The Prime Minister and the Cabinet have just concluded their Emergency COBRA meeting, thankfully they are taking the threat seriously as per your initial report and evidence. A little back and forth on if these entities are Chinese genetic experiments but we all agree that’s unlikely. Either way, this incident is to remain secret for now.” “Yes sir.” As Sykes expected. “Though that may be difficult in the longer term” “Furthermore to this threat, the Home Secretary with the full support of the Prime Minister is authorising a taskforce be created from MI5 personnel to take charge of this incident and ensure that the UK is protected. I am to lead this taskforce and I want you as part of it. Depending on what happens next we may be swept up in something bigger, but for now I’m drafting a few others and we’re going to meet face to face. There are certain things I cannot reveal unless it’s in person. Question is Sykes, are you in?” Sykes took care not to audibly sigh. He just wanted a quiet desk job and write his stories, but deep down he knew he wanted to see how deep this rabbit hole went. “I’m in Director. What are your orders?” The order as it turns out, was to wait for a car and receive further instructions. Sir Henry Pierce wasn’t much clearer than that, but Sykes guessed the Director’s plate was more than a little full with everything going on. Sykes took the time to make the rounds, talk to people and made sure subordinates were coping well with the situation. The SAS team were soon picked up by a military helicopter, but not before Sykes exchanged final pleasantries with the Captain, hoping to meet again some time under better circumstances and “preferably on a bloody chopper than a plane”. As the sun rose in the morning, and the last of the supply vans had arrived to keep all the civilians comfortable in the church while MI5 staff cleaned up Sykes’ car arrived, with one of the bigwigs from Thames House replacing him in person. Without a word, the driver of the black, heavily tinted SUV motioned for Sykes to get in the back. It was only once the car was let through the police cordon and they were safely on a main road did the driver speak. “Go bag and gear under your seat. Get changed and ready sir, we’re picking up someone else on the way.” It was only then did Sykes realise he was still in most of his combat gear, having been running on adrenaline since he got on that plane. He shuffled around for a few minutes as he shed his layers and put on his new civilian clothes, obviously freshly bought in his size. Smart casual jeans with leather belt, cotton white shirt, practical dark trainers with socks and a neat black sweater. Comfortable and breathable, he would feel a lot easier if he didn’t need to holster his pistol in his waistband “Who are we picking up and how long?” Sykes asked, breaking the awkward silence. He half expected the driver to not answer but remembered that he was a ‘sir’ to this guy. “Not 100% sure but I think it’s a hacker asset. Certainly looks the type.” The driver reached to the seat next to him and passed a folder back to Sykes. “Maria Goldstein, Cyber Security Expert. Seems like it to me” Sykes muttered under his breath, as he looked at the photo of the young rebellious looking woman with dyed blonde hair. “Did the Director have any further orders for me?” “None that I know of. He has the details for your new phone and laptop so he’ll call if he needs anything.” “In that case...I’m going to take a nap.” “Understood, I’ll wake you up when we get there.” Military personnel, both current and former had a reputation for being able to fall asleep anywhere, at any time within 2 minutes, which came about as part of their training. Make a soldier push their limits on a daily basis and their minds and bodies will take any chance they can get to rest up for more. For Sykes however, this sleep was different. Sure, he gave in to his exhaustion easily enough, but his mind was wracked by nightmares. brought back to that moment where he shot the woman to close the portal, like he was just a spider on the wall, watching the scene from afar... This will not stop Sykes, in his lucidly dreaming state did not know what that thought was, but he somehow knew it was not his own. This will get worse Sykes nodded, despite himself. He had stopped one attack, but others would come. How far are you willing to go, to stop this threat? Sykes didn’t know whether the voice was sincere or sinister, but what he did know was his answer. “Whatever it takes. To do less is to admit defeat.” Then my gift was granted wisely. “Sir?” Sykes was woken up instantly alert. “We’re here.” For someone who was apparently a cyber security expert Sykes was surprised to find Ms Maria Goldstein living in an apparently slum in Liverpool but it wasn’t something he was going to question right now, he just needed to get the asset and return to the car. They were parked on the side of a side road outside of a concrete monstrosity, housing what looked like hundreds of residences. After a brief deliberation Sykes decided to go in alone up the many flights of stairs and leave the driver with the vehicle, the last thing he wanted was for locals to be suspicious. Carrying a clipboard and a pen, a rudimentary disguise for any onlookers Sykes knocked at the door for Flat 19C which had a poster on the door saying ‘Gamer at Work, Enter At Your Own Peril’. The door creaked open, stopped by a chain. “Hello, who is this?” Asset confirmed, though she looked more worried than rebellious now. “I’m Agent Sykes, I’ve been sent by Director Pierce to come pick you up “ “Prove you’re an agent. Show me your badge.” Sykes was momentarily stunned. “We’re MI5, we don’t carry badges while working off the grid.” Goldstein undid the chain with a sigh. “Oh thank fuck. I know how big this is and I’m not taking any chances. Come in.” Sykes did so, noting the clutter of hardware connected by large cables. Her flat was a mess, and about 80% of the available space seemed dedicated to various tech beyond his area of expertise. “Are you ready to go Ms Goldstein?” He asked, not unkindly. “Just about. I really can’t afford to leave most of this stuff lying around for too long. Do you want a cup of tea?” “Ah, no thank you, we can have refreshments once we get to where we’re going. Do you need help with anything?” “Well I may need your help carrying some things but-” “You just need the basics Ms Goldstein. Some clothes, phone, wallet, and maybe a laptop. Anything else can be either bought and replaced or recovered at a later date.” Goldstein looked distraught for a moment, but eventually nodded. Sykes felt sorry for her. She was clearly an eccentric and being taken out of her comfort zone would surely be distressing for her. “Listen I know this sucks right now Ms Goldstein, but either I or one of the other agents can get this stuff back at a later date. The Director needs you for a reason, and trust me when I say this may be bigger than you might think.” “Fine, fine.” Goldstein was unhappy, but agreeable. “Just don’t call me Ms Goldstein, that’s like, super weird. Maria works fine.” “Fair enough” Sykes replied with an amused chuckle, lowering the tension in the room. “In that case I’m William, or Bill if that suits you, but we need to be quick here.” In the end, Maria didn’t really bother much with clothes, toothbrushes or the usual essentials bar half a box of teabags, making room in her rucksack for several laptops and harddrives. Sykes granted her as much space as possible, all the while keeping lookout through the tiny window. He couldn’t imagine living like this, even after going through the military but he knew that even though Maria must have had options, many other people did not. “How long are we going to be?” Sykes asked the driver when they got to the car and started driving. “Just a couple of hours, I’ve checked in and Director Pierce is already there with a few others.” “Where are we even going?” Maria asked, shuffling around uncomfortably. “Safe house in the Midlands, Director Pierce gave me the directions while Agent Sykes went to pick you up.” Maria nodded before turning to Sykes. “So... is it true? You made first contact with aliens?” Sykes sighed at the obvious breach of security. This was going to be a long trip… The safehouse as it turns out, was a farm. Sykes guessed it once they started traversing different country roads and trails but it did make sense. It was remote and out the way enough that they could meet in relative security. The farmer waved them in and pointed to one of the barns, the doors of which shut behind them automatically. Two agents dressed as farmhands awaited their arrive who assured Sykes and Maria that they would take good care of their belongings while pointing them towards a high tech steel vault door at the back where Director Pierce was stood with a serious expression. In his 60s with a smart, crisp appearance, he still had the gait of a lethal old-school veteran spy, though seemed a little out of place in a grey hoody and jeans. Probably how he travelled here after meeting with the government. “Bill, Maria. Glad you made it. You two are the last ones I need here right now. Follow me and save your questions until the end. They were led through the steel door and down a set of stairs to what was obviously an underground bunker. Sykes knew a few of these places existed since at least the Cold War but many of them had been sold to various billionaires and a few were tourist attractions. It did make sense for MI5 to keep one of two for a rainy day. After walking down a short corridor, passing agents who appeared to be moving pieces of equipment in they entered a conference room with five others sat down. As Sykes and Maria sat down Director Pierce spoke up at the head of the table. “Alright, enough waiting around. As many of you now know, the UK recently suffered an attack by unknown creatures. Basic autopsies are still underway, however Professor Johnstone...” Director Pierce nodded at the elderly gentleman opposite Maria “...has confirmed that they are not human, and have no DNA match with any known species on Earth.” Pierce sighed, then nodded at Sykes. “Agent Sykes was the field agent in charge of combatting the attack with a unit of SAS on standby in the UK for events like these. Thanks to his arrival and neutralization of the portal these creatures used to arrive, we are able to maintain the veil of secrecy on this for now, but not forever. This is however enough time for the government to move critical resources around and develop countermeasures for more attacks. Police forces are going to double the number of Authorized Firearms Officers and undertake mass-training on handling bladed weapon assault, which was what was used by the enemy during their attack. We also have more armed forces on standby in the country under the guise of an increased terrorism threat. As far as we are concerned, the Home Secretary has authorised our taskforce to investigate this attack, respond to any more that occur, and eliminate the threat.” “We are now the MI5 branch for Infiltration, Paranormal and Extraterrestrial Response. Using roman numerals, I’ve dubbed our unit V.I.P.E.R.” Pierce sighed again. “That was the good news. Now for the bad and ugly.” He pressed a button on a remote on the table, as more images popped up. Sykes’s heart skipped a beat. “This information was revealed to me by MI6 during the COBRA meeting. They had detected strange behaviours from other nations around the world and decided to investigate. This video is from Russia...” The next slide showed a heavily snowed area. A group of teenagers were playing around in the style of a TikTok clip before it cut to screams as the camera fell. From the image the room could see a dark, armoured figure on a braying horse with a greataxe dripping with blood and viscera. “This is the only evidence of what happened. MI6 agents have not yet been able to gather more information, aside from the fact that the entire town has disappeared without a trace.” He clicked again on his remote, “This video is gaining traction in South America. We’re unsure where this is but all involved are speaking Portuguese.” The next video showed a gang fight. Young men with machetes squaring up against each other, that is until two large hounds appeared, flayed looking with the muscle clearly visible and growling smoke and fire. They charged the gangsters and brutally gored them until the video cut out. “This isn’t all. Both North Korea and Iran have gone dark, much more so than usual, and there are rumours of a bloody power struggle between different factions in the CCP currently governing China. African militias are going more crazy than ever before and many merchant ships are going missing in the Indian Ocean. These have plausible explanations but given our new context here, I’m not counting on them.” “To put it all into perspective ladies and gentleman, this is much bigger than the UK, but for now our objective is to secure our own country first and foremost. Those of you who already know your objectives can go, as we cannot waste any time on this. The rest of you can stay while I speak to each of you.” Sykes slumped back into his chair. He was right about the threat to the planet, and of course other countries were keeping it to themselves. Not even a mention of NATO from the director. “Bill” Sykes perked up upon the Director calling him. “I know this isn’t what you wanted, but you’re the only person I trust for this.” “What do you need sir?” “I need you to lead V.I.P.E.R. Tactical and Field Operations. The others will be busy with their respective fields but I need you to be ready for further attacks. Coordinate with the others on what you both need, and get your teams ready.” Sykes nodded. “Oh and one more thing.” “Sir?” “Congratulations on your promotion….Commander.” ******* Less action than Part 1, but I hope you guys enjoy, this is based on the CYOA Dawn of a Demon Lord (https://imgur.com/a/v3aTIoy) which I've recently done a narration of on my channel if you're interested (https://youtu.be/_FwoGadgT1Y) More?
When evaluating the condition of Iranian forces relative to those of the United States, there is only one conclusion: We are fucked. Good news though. We have nuclear weapons, albeit untested ones [but they work great in simulations, and even if they underperform and fizzle, worst case, it should still be like 10-20kt, and in reality more like 100kt with the boosted fission primary, beating out France for highest yield first test either wa]. Our nuclear doctrine, such as it is, will consist of essentially the rumored "Samson Option". Should Iran fall or be attacked with nuclear weapons, our arsenal will go in every direction. North to Russia, east to China, India, and Pakistan [oh and North Korea], and west to France, the UK and the USA. However, at present, our arsenal consists of checks notes10 fully assembled thermonuclear devices, all of which are nominal 300kt yield in our highly sophisticated simulations [using actual high-energy fusion experiments to test them]. Should the US attempt to launch a first strike against our nascent nuclear program--which would be supremely foolish--we will demonstrate our resolve with a retaliatory nuclear strike, after a fashion. A direct attack would quite possibly be foiled, and would possibly lead to an all-out nuclear exchange, which we would not survive. Presuming we survive the first wave of such an attack, standard protocols will be instituted. First, all power and internet will be cut, to ensure no organized terror or cyberattacks will occur, and to shield against EMP from the coming battle. Everything that can be brought down hard, will be. All civilian aircraft will be grounded, and anything that we have that can fly will be sent up with at least heat-seeking missiles [our aerial forces are on high readiness in these dangerous months as previously noted]. All our SAMs will be brought online. Cumulatively, these forces amount to: Surface to Air Missiles: [disclaimer, a lot of this is pulled from Wikipedia and I suspect indigenous system numbers may be moderately exaggerated--though not by too much--plus of course my orders]
New Chinese stealth fighter for export, most advanced aircraft in Iranian arsenal
Modern Iranian aircraft are armed with the PL-9 and SD-10 air to air missiles, both highly advanced, with older aircraft, unlikely to see front-line combat, being armed with a mix of random Sidewinders and Soviet weapons along with domestic clones of such, like the Fakour [Iranian AIM-54 clone]. Iranian pilots aren't half-bad either, even with the air force decaying it has seen a revitalization in recent years, still aiming to be a US-quality force [with some Chinese influences, which were in turn inspired by the Americans], so it shouldn't be as vulnerable as most tinpot dictator's air forces. Needless to say, while we cannot hold out against American forces forever, we can put up a pretty good fight against the Americans and their Zionist comrades, with one of the world's most sophisticated air defense networks, bar perhaps only China, Russia, and maybe South Korea. Non-stealth aircraft will be massacred if they dare approach; while even stealthy aircraft will find it difficult to penetrate our massive sensor web and frequent fighter patrols.
Retaliation
We cannot hope to respond to the United States in a conventional war, we can respond using nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, Iranian strengths, and perhaps if things proceed swarm tactics, drones, and that sort of thing. And crucially, we must strike first to deter out adversaries and degrade their capabilities. Being right next to Saddam Hussein, we learned long ago that it is best to hit your enemies before they can build up forces to strike. So first we will launch one of our 300kt [nominal] warheads on a Khorramshahr missile), currently what we can deploy them on due to the fact that our proper ICBM has not entered service yet. It will do adequately for the task at hand. Instead of attempting to reenter the atmosphere, where it would be highly vulnerable to anti-ballistic missile systems, it will detonate at an altitude of 400km, similar to the Starfish Prime test. It will also be fired in a salvo of about 20 missiles and use decoy targets--balloons and similar, which serve perfectly well in space--and thus will be almost certain to avoid intercept. The nominal target will be approximately 20km outside Mecca, arcing the missiles over the Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia, which, even if it possesses missile defenses, is likely rubbish at firing them unlike the US Navy. Also happily [mostly], the magnetic field over Mecca is fairly weak. This should limit the deleterious impacts of the EMP to places that we [and the United States] do not really care about, aside from Israel in the extreme range. However, our expectation is that it will cause widespread power outages and damage to electrical equipment across western Saudi Arabia, and potentially as far away as Ethiopia or Cairo. It should also cause significant military confusion, and demonstrate that Iran both has nuclear weapons and is willing to use them, in a colourful fashion--the detonation will likely be visible across most of the Middle East. Timed for simultaneous detonation will be a second nuclear warhead, this one over the Persian Gulf, at a much lower altitude of 200km, again delivered by Khorramshahr missile). This device will cause substantial EMP effects, but the powering down of as much of Iran as possible should mitigate them for us, even if Dubai, Qatar, and such suffer greatly. It will not disable military systems by and large--we're operating EMP-hardened gear, as are our adversaries. However, it will do something more important: Create a nuclear blackout. So in addition to ensuring that our capability is demonstrated without nuking anyone, and causing EMP damage [including to vital oil facilities in the region], missile and air defense radars in the entire Persian Gulf region will be scrambled--opening a window of opportunity for a ballistic missile attack which simply cannot be stopped. In the roughly ten minute window opened, Iranian short-range missiles will be launched against the following targets [having been prepared to fire in coordination with the nuclear launch]:
5 Qiam-1 [SCUD-C improved] missiles, 2 Khalij Fars for each warship docked there according to latest commercial satellite imagery [looks like usually about 3]
Fifth Fleet HQ, SCUDs liable to cause mass damage to base, Khalij Fars anti-ship ballistic missile will probably hit what's there.
50 Fateh-110 missiles targeting solely American logistic areas [with a handful set aside for runway cratering], avoiding any foreign/Qatari areas if at all possible, using highly accurate Fateh-110
By far the largest American airbase in the region, home to forward HQ of CENTCOM
40 Fateh-110 missiles targeting American and Emirati logistic areas and tarmac airplanes with a handful set aside for runway cratering, avoiding French and other foreign areas if at all possible with high accuracy
Home to most of the UAE's air force and a USAF expeditionary force
40 Zolfaghar) missiles targeted primarily at tarmac where large aircraft are located [but will spread across base]
Modest American presence of [as of 2020] 2000 American troops and advanced stealth aircraft, Saudi base for AWACS and refuelling aircraft vitally needed to operate air force
Home to Saudi Arabia's king, the consultative assembly, support staff, royal family, all sorts of other important people.
In addition, numerous Hormuz-1/2) anti-radiation ballistic missiles will be fired; targeting the powerful radars that will be blindly searching the sky across the Persian Gulf, from Saudi Arabia's AN-TPY THAAD system and S-400 SAMs to the Gulf States' innumerable Patriot batteries to perhaps even hostile warships [Kuwaiti, Saudi, Emirati, American] caught in the Persian Gulf. Those warships will be targeted by Khalij Fars) missiles, which, since they rely on electro-optical seekers, can be launched at the last known positions of hostile warships and hit them while the warships are radar-blinded, though our conventional anti-ship missiles would be useless. Immediately after this attack, as soon as contact can be reestablished, Iran will express its desire to agree to an immediate cease-fire and a lasting peace in the region, making clear that while it could have been much more destructive, and still retains the capability to be much more destructive, it has no wish to continue fighting. Conclusion It is our hope that this massive retaliatory strike, demonstrating the capability of Iran and that we are willing to use our capabilities to the fullest, will strike fear into the hearts of our enemies and make them sue for peace, in part because much of their logistical and organizational capability will have been destroyed by the initial assault. The sun will rise--or rather, the high-altitude nuclear detonation will rise--above the Middle East, the sun of a strong and powerful Iran that does not have to rely on any external security guarantees or foreign "allies" to protect it. M: If mods decide a nuclear launch of this sort [despite Iran being desperate, paranoid, and run by a bunch of somewhat lunatic revolutionary guards for the moment] isn't kosher, then the ballistic missile strike still goes ahead as planned, preceded by anti-radiation ballistic missiles, though our expectation is that quite a few of them will be shot down without the nuclear blackout covering for them.
[Table] I am Colonel (Ret.) Peter Mansoor, former executive officer to Gen. David Petraeus in Iraq and currently a professor of military history at The Ohio State University. AMA! (pt 1/2)
Source The AMA began with a reply to a deleted comment:
A user from the first (deleted) thread asked my opinion on the killing of Qassem Soleimani. The Iranian leader of the Qods Force of the Iranian Revolution Guards Corps was responsible for the deaths of around 600 American soldiers during the Iraq War. He was traveling to Iraq to coordinate further attacks against American troops. Targeting him was justified. A number of fellow veterans called me afterwards to share satisfaction that in this case, justice was done. Feel free to follow up if this didn't answer your question.
Comment deleted by user I think the justification was that he was planning attacks against American personnel in Iraq, which was true. The fact that we had designated the Qods Force a terrorist organization was not the deciding factor. After the Iranian retaliation (missile attacks on US and Iraqi forces in Iraq), the Iranians dialed back their attacks in Iraq and in the Gulf region. So apparently we hit the right guy.
Questions
Answers
General Petraeus had some interesting ideas on how the rebuilding and formation of the Iraqi government should be after Sadam was ousted from power. Do you think that we would look on the Iraq war differently if the administration at the time would have followed General Petraus' recommendations after Saddam was ousted?
It wasn't just Gen. Petraeus's ideas that were ignored; the administration paid scant attention to anything beyond regime change. Iraq might have turned out much differently had we seized the ammunition depots, closed the borders, retrained and used the Iraqi Army for security, and built representative government from the ground up, as the 101st Airborne Division under Gen. Petraeus was doing up in Mosul. The decision to invade Iraq was a mistake; the decision to invade with no plan for post-hostilities was madness.
"We need to find common ground and work from the middle outward, not from the extremes inward." Can we recover and get to this point? The news, social media, the water cooler - it really seems likes it’s us versus them more than ever before. I worry that the election will only lead to further polarization, regardless of outcome. Is this just the new norm in American politics?
American politics have never been civil, but politicians in the past worked to find common ground and compromise once elections were over. The difference today is there are no incentives for politicians to compromise, since their survival in office depends on appealing to an increasingly polarized base. I think reforms at the state level regarding drawing Congressional district boundaries to make elections more competitive would help. Ohio passed a constitutional amendment in this regard that goes into effect in 2022.
We also need to consider forcing social media companies to take responsibility for the content on their websites. This would force them to tackle disinformation and conspiracy theories, which have poisoned the political atmosphere.
We should also revamp civics education in our high schools, so that high school graduates understand how to research an article or website for legitimacy.
Tamping down the vitriol in politics will take time, but the future of our democratic experiment depends on restoring civility and compromise to the political process.
Was the Iraq war a mistake in hindsight? With what you know now, what would you have advised?
It was a mistake both in hindsight and at the time. As I mentioned in another answer, I argued at the time to my US Army War College classmates that we should have leveraged our NATO allies and the United Nations to contain Saddam rather than invading. The result has been 400,000+ Iraqis dead, 5,000+ US service members dead, a trillion dollars in lost treasure, and Iran ascendant in the Middle East. It was perhaps the worst strategic error in US history.
How should the US approach nations such as Cuba and North Korea in the future and how can the US match the skills and capabilities of nations such as Russia and China in offensive cyber warfare?
North Korea is a difficult challenge, but the way to approach it is to strengthen our alliance with Japan and South Korea and convince China that it is its interest to check Kim Jong Un's nuclear weapons program. NK is a wicked problem, but I don't think that Dear Leader has a death wish. His nuclear weapons are a deterrent to an attack by the United States, and they have worked in that regard. It is best to be patient and allow diplomacy and sanctions to contain the regime.
Cuba is a different challenge. After President Obama opened relations, the Trump administration has pulled back to a certain extent. This is a diplomatic issue, not a military one. Provided Cuba doesn't try to export its revolution as it did during the Cold War, the United States could slowly improve relations with it even given the authoritarian nature of the regime.
Regarding US cyber capabilities, they are more powerful than most people imagine. But US law prohibits us from using them to steal intellectual property the way China does. Russia has used its cyber and social media warriors to destabilize our democracy and those of our NATO allies. I believe a Biden administration would be tougher on Russia, which is the reason why Russia continues to use its cyber capabilities to try to tilt the election in Trump's favor. (I'm not saying this is collusion, by the way. It is what it is.)
Hi Peter! What advice can you give to my husband, (a Marine who served two deployments in Iraq) who is working on a service-related memoir? He was a history major in college, with special interest in military history. I think he would be jazzed at your response!
He should read other war memoirs to see what makes them special. I recommend E.B. Sledge, "With the Old Breed," George MacDonald Fraser, "Quartered Safe Out Here," and Nate Fick, "One Bullet Away." And he could read my memoir, "Baghdad at Sunrise." Each of them conveys deeper truths about war and combat than just a recitation of what someone did while deployed in combat. Think about what would separate his story from all the others waiting to be published.
What are some interesting details you've noticed that will likely be lost or largely ignored by history (For example, profound effect of dysentery or other unglamorous diseases in warfare, windows software bugs disabling submarines, etc...)?
As a historian I am concerned that the real history of many events will go unrecorded as so much correspondence today is done via electronic means. I can go to the archives to look at paper copies of World War II records, but where do I go to look at records from the Iraq War? And what happens 200 years from now when the IT systems of the future can't read our emails?
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From that POV, what's the longest timeframe do you think records should be allowed to be redacted? What's the most shocking or interesting thing you've discovered from digging through old archives?
I think the 40 year rule used for WWII records is a pretty good one, although there might be reasons to extend the classification longer if sources (spies) are still alive and need to be protected. What I find most interesting in digging through the archives are not secrets that have finally come to light, but revelations about what people actually thought at the time and not the vanilla version presented to the public. I'm writing a book on the liberation of the Philippines during WWII right now. During my research I discovered this tidbit: "On October 29 MacArthur sent a note to Halsey thanking him and his command for their support of the Leyte invasion: 'I send my deepest thanks and appreciation to your magnificent forces on the splendid support and assistance you and they have rendered in the Leyte operation. We have cooperated with you so long that we are accustomed and expect your brilliant successes and you have more than sustained our fullest anticipations. Everyone here has a feeling of complete confidence and inspiration when you go into action in our support.' In private, however, MacArthur’s thoughts took on a completely different tone. The following handwritten note appears on the file copy of the message: 'This follows verbal castigation of Halsey by Gen. MacArthur who repeatedly charged him with failure to execute his mission of covering the Leyte operation. When Halsey failed to get into the Battle of Leyte Gulf, thus threatening the destruction of our shipping, Gen. MacArthur repeatedly stated that Halsey should be relieved and would welcome his relief, since he no longer had confidence in him; that he would never again support us.'"
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Based upon your experience and knowledge of the quality of documents from WWII do you think the current data archiving done by the US will be adequate for future historians?
See the comment above and the response by two archivists regarding digital data storage today. In a word, no.
Regarding counterinsurgencies, what do you wish you'd known at the outset of Iraq? And, also, I have been worried about the degradation of our diplomatic apparatus at State. As a military leader, has and, if so, how has your perspective changed on how we use soft power around the world?
We were not well educated or trained on insurgencies and counterinsurgency when we invaded Iraq in 2003. I would have benefited from understanding the various ways insurgents attempt to control the population in order to counter their techniques.
Regarding our Foreign Service officers, I couldn't agree more. They are worth their weight in gold - or tanks, planes, and ships - and I fear this administration has put a serious dent into the State Department. I was fortunate to serve with Ambassador Ryan Crocker, the gold standard for diplomats as far as I'm concerned. America could use more diplomats like him.
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Thank you, Colonel. I wish I had known this AMA was happening in advance. I have so many questions. Do any of your books or scholarly works address your perspectives on the future of warfare and the most effective strategies to engage with non-state actors?
My work is not focused on those areas, but you might enjoy some of the works by David Kilcullen, who served on Gen. Petraeus's staff during the Surge in Iraq in 2007-2008. He has written quite a bit on those topics and his analysis is usually quite good.
What did you think of the movie War Machine starring Brad Pitt? It was obviously a comedy, but do you feel like there was some truth to its depiction of the US's approach to the conflict in Afghanistan and Iraq?
I didn't like the way he portrayed Gen. Stan McChyrstal (whom I have met), but there was some truth in the idea that each new command team would come into Afghanistan thinking they would win the war then others couldn't. H.R. McMaster says it well in his new book (Battlegrounds) that we haven't been in Afghanistan for 19 years; we've been there for one year 19 times in a row.
What is your opinion of actions the US has taken in pursuit of what appear to be short term goals, and then the long term results seem to put us worse off? As an example, the overthrow of the Mohammad Mosaddegh of Iran seems to have been a decision of which we are still feeling the effects. As an additional question, considering the fact that the US military, and intelligence agencies do lie to the American people with the aim of serving the US' political interests, how can people trust the military or these agencies? As an example there are well known examples of the military misleading the public about the war in Afghanistan, politicians lying about Iraq and the IC going along with it, or the CIA's refusal to acknowledge Levison for years after any intel would have been valuable or any sources compromised, and despite the claim that he was there on an "unauthorized" mission.
There is a good case to be made that regime change as a policy has hurt the United States far more than it has helped. We intervene in the internal affairs of others nations at our peril. A lot of the reasoning for these coups disappeared with the end of the Cold War. As for the wars of 9/11, the result of the Iraq War has cured us of any desire to conduct regime change at the barrel of a gun, at least absent a clear and present danger to US security.
As for the truthfulness of the government, the best antidote is a vigorous media (the fourth branch of government). President Trump likes to call it the "fake news media" because he doesn't like their coverage, especially when they call out his lies. The media is not always right and is sometimes biased, but we are far better off with it than without it.
How would you rate the US performance in Iraq, especially considering that you advocated for deployment of additional troops? What are/were the primary US interests in Iraq?Do you think Iraq and other countries would have been better off without the US involvement?
I would start with first principles: strategic mistakes, once made, can rarely be corrected. We should not have invaded Iraq, and all of our failures begin from that premise.
The military did a wonderful job demolishing the Iraqi Army and forcing Saddam from power, and then stumbled for nearly four years trying to figure out how to stabilize Iraq, create the instruments of government and a new military, and fight a growing insurgency. The development of new counterinsurgency doctrine in 2006 and the Surge of forces in 2007-2008 helped to stave off defeat, but could not overcome the fractures in Iraqi society that eventually led to the rise of ISIS.
I won't go into what the Bush administration thought US interests were in 2003, because they were wrong and their ideas have been overtaken by events. Today the United States desires an Iraq that doesn't splinter, that is an ally in the war against ISIS, and is not a pawn of Iran. I'm afraid we might only achieve two out of three, but time will tell.
And the answer to your third question is absolutely yes.
What emerging threats are being discussed at the War College?
The US Army, and by extension the US Army War College, are focusing on great power competition; specifically, potential conflicts with Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. I think the Army would like to get out of the counterinsurgency business, even though it is in active conflict still in Afghanistan. There is also some focus on advising and assisting foreign militaries, although the Special Forces are also heavily involved in this area.
In your opinion, was Market Garden worth the expenditure of men, time, and resources?
Absolutely not. The plan was flawed from the beginning - even if XXX Corps had reached the Rhine River, it would not have had the logistics to carry it into the Ruhr. Eisenhower should have ordered Montgomery to open the Scheldt Estuary immediately after the seizure of Antwerp, instead of putting it on the back burner for a long shot at glory.
What is the hardest choice you've faced?
I was directing a brigade operation in the city of Karbala when one of my units came under fire from a building that was adjacent to a holy shrine. To protect my soldiers and destroy the enemy I called in an airstrike on the building. This may seem like an easy decision, but any damage to the shrine would have meant disastrous consequences to the US position in Iraq. It was around 2 o'clock in the morning, the AC-130 gunship was flying unseen overhead, and it was my decision to make. I called in the airstrike and talked the aerial gunners onto the target. The action resulted in the destruction of the enemy force and ended the battle for Karbala.
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Thank you. Were the consequences what you anticipated or was everything so disorganized that there wasn't much outcry?
The consequences were far better than I had expected. The airstrike did not damage the shrine, and no civilians were killed. The end of the fighting enabled the people to begin cleaning up and restoring the city. Coalition forces never had to return to Karbala - there was a brief gun battle there in August 2007, but it was Iraqi militias vying for control.
What has been your favorite state to live in? Do you actually like Ohio?
I have visited 49 of the 50 states (sorry, North Dakota) and have lived in 10 of them (Minnesota, California, New York, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Maryland, and Pennsylvania). There were things I liked about all of these states, but I think California and Ohio are at the top of the list. I was raised in Sacramento and really like that city, but I have now lived in Ohio longer than I have lived anywhere else. My wife and I love the Columbus area, the four seasons here in the Midwest, and of course the Buckeyes!
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O-H
I-O!
I can't recall whether Gen. Petraeus or McChrystal had the committee of committed dissenters. If you were in that crew, did you find the structure valuable? How did you build enough trust among your troops that they could feel confident in disagreeing with you?
First I've heard of that particular group. Petraeus was open to receiving emails from any soldier who thought their idea was worthy of examination by the 4-star commander, and sometimes he received valuable feedback in this manner. The key is to appreciate the feedback without taking it personally if a soldier is just airing grievances.
How do you response to this op-ed, arguing that military leaders (active or retired) should totally stay away from presidential endorsements or disendorsements, due to the risk of politicizing the military? Edit: to be clear, I say this as someone who is VERY hopeful Trump is a one term president. I'm asking this not as a partisan, but wondering about whether this is or is not a useful guideline.
Interesting op-ed. Retired officers, of course, have the same First Amendment rights as other citizens. But retired general and flag officers (admirals) are held in special esteem by the American people. The danger of their endorsement of presidential candidates is that future presidents may condition promotions based on political loyalty. This would actually be a return to the way the US military worked in the 19th century, before the professionalization of the institution. It would not be good for the nation to have promotions tied to politics. (I write this as a retired colonel who has endorsed Joe Biden for president, so I am aware of the risks. But promotions through colonel are controlled by the services with the consent of the Senate. The president has control over promotions to 3 and 4 star rank, albeit also with the consent of the Senate.)
What is your opinion of Eisenhower's warning of the military industrial complex?
Eisenhower grew up in an era when the United States did not maintain a large standing military. He wanted to return to that policy, but the creation of the national security state during the Cold War prevented a return to the past. His warning about the military-industrial complex may have been heartfelt, but until the Cold War was over it was not going away. After the fall of the Soviet Union the defense industry shrunk dramatically, only to resurge after 9/11.
What's the best balance between Micro and Macro Management when managing large projects?
A leader needs to establish a vision and set the goals for an organization, provide guidance for planning, and then empower his/her subordinates to get the job done. Leaders need to check on the organization without making every single decision, which leads to micromanagement and paralysis. Gen. Petraeus did this through the morning update brief, where he received feedback on the status of Multi-National Force-Iraq and gave guidance on the way ahead. He would also go into the field to meet with brigade, battalion, and company commanders to check the pulse of the organization at lower echelons and get a visceral sense for what was happening where boots met sand. I though his balance in this regard was spot on.
Do you think we are close to the ''end of the US empire''? If so, at what point does our internal conflict lead to other nations ''choosing sides'' and actively engaging in their desired outcomes?
If by the US empire you mean US domination of the global system, then yes, we are at the end. Americans have tired of the burdens of global leadership, and even if a Biden presidency tried to restore the US into a position of leadership, other nations would never be certain that another Donald Trump isn't lurking around the next election corner.
Other nations are already choosing sides, but most prefer a relationship with the United State vice one with China or Russia. I think a lot of foreign leaders are awaiting the outcome of this election to see what comes next for the United States, and then they will make their decisions accordingly.
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And by "leadership" I assume you mean bullying less powerful nations into submission?
By leadership I mean knitting together a system of alliances that makes the world safer the keeps the global commons free for all to use, and supporting a global system of finance and trade that doesn't advantage a single country like China.
Who do you support for president and why?
I support Joe Biden. I believe he has better programs to benefit Americans (support for the Affordable Care Act, a plan for infrastructure investment, a tax plan that will get the deficit under control), he will listen to science when it comes to battling the pandemic and climate change, and he will reassure America's allies, without which our security is significantly lessened. Plus I think the last four years have been a hot mess inside a dumpster fire on a moving trainwreck...
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Halfway up shit's creek to hell on a handbasket going nowhere fast. I'm sorry, I felt the metaphor needed extension sir.
LOL
It’s clear in retrospect that Dick Cheney was correct when he stated that invading Iraq and taking Baghdad was a terrible idea because it would destabilize the Middle East and give rise to extremism in the region. Why didn’t more people heed his advice, including himself? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YENbElb5-xY
He was correct in 1991, but completely ignored his own advice in 2003. In the interim a consensus in the foreign policy elite (aka, the Blob) emerged that Saddam had to be removed from power, and the neoconservatives (Cheney among them) believed that US military power could do this quickly, cheaply, and at minimal cost in lives. They simply wished away the aftermath of an invasion, however, believing that Iraqi ex-pats or the UN would come in to clean up the mess.
Is your last name Arabic? What’s the story there?
My father was of Palestinian descent - born as an American citizen overseas (my grandfather had become a naturalized American citizen in the 1920s and then returned to the old country to marry) in the West Bank and emigrated to the United States at the age of 8.
Do you believe justice was served with the General's sentence?
Gen. Petraeus pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge of mishandling classified information and received two years of probation and fined $100,000. I felt this was sufficient given the circumstances.
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Even with the fact that it was SCI information he leaked and used draft emails to communicate?
He shared his personal notebooks with Paula Broadwell, who was a US Army reserve major with a security clearance (albeit not an SCI clearance). None of the information leaked into the public domain, nor did she use it in her published work. He was wrong, but the punishment fit the circumstances.
100 Modern day Marines (2020) vs. 112,000 British soldiers from the American Revolutionary War (1775) : Who wins? Each group is armed with the weapons and tactics of their day. Marines have unlimited ammo. No air support or anything with vehicles. Brits do not have cannons. The two groups are dropped a mile from each other, into a relatively open area with some trees and a few buildings.
That's a lot of dead Redcoats!
How much do you love being a grandpa? Do you have any names you hope to be called? Do you want to be grandpa? Or pawpaw? Or grampy? Something else maybe?
LOL! I love being a grandparent - the GrandDaught is a cutie! Since half of my heritage is German I have chosen "Opa" as my title. My wife is "Nana."
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She is a cutie! Your daughter is also beautiful. You raised her well (I'm from your daughter's mommy group, we met up a few weeks ago)
Nice to meet you virtually!
What are the chances of a civil war in the United States? Would some states secede? How would such a conflict develop?
I don't think a civil war in the United States today would be like the conflict fought in the 19th century. It would play out more like the Iraq civil war, with car bombs, roadside bombs, urban and rural guerrillas, rocket and mortar attacks, snipers, population cleansing, etc. It would be nasty, deadly, and brutal. I hate the way too many people casually mention the possibility. It would be awful.
Thank you for your time this evening. Can you briefly share your thoughts on the Impeachment and the GOPs decision to not hear evidence, despite such? Additionally, based on the Mueller Report’s 10 cases of obstruction of justice noted, and the fact that indictment was withheld based on a “longstanding rule”, would you like to see Trump indicted for his crimes as President? Thank you for your service.
I'm not a fan of impeachment, but in my view the president obstructed justice in a number of ways laid out by the House. The refusal of the Republicans in the Senate to hear witnesses set a bad precedent. But that is over now, and I do not think that Trump should be indicted once he leaves office, except for crimes he may have committed prior to entering the presidency (e.g., tax fraud). We do not want to set a precedent of exacting revenge on our political leaders once they leave office (which is why the "lock her up" chants are so awful).
What are your thoughts on women serving in Special Forces?
If they can meet the physical standards then they should be able to serve. I think SF will find women soldiers of value, and especially when dealing with women in foreign populations.
The US has been in armed conflict 222 out of 239 years. Will there ever be a time when the US isn't at war with someone?
As a major global power the United States has a vested interest in the stability of the international order. Our economy depends on the free use of the global commons, for instance. The American people want to be kept free of terrorist threats, and a large majority support our overseas alliances. This puts the United States in the crosshairs of strategic competitors such as Russia and China, regional powers such as North Korea and Iran, and terrorist groups with global reach. We can refrain from wars of choice (such as Iraq), but unless we want to retreat into isolationism the United States will need to continue to use its military power to defend our national security objectives overseas.
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Thank you for your answer, sir. If I could ask a follow up, don't armed conflict create the terrorists we have to fight later?
Sometimes. A good book on this is David Kilcullen, The Accidental Guerrilla. His thesis is that US interventions into some areas actually create blow-back that creates more insurgents than they eliminate. I think what we have discovered since 2001 is that more limited use of military force is better than massive invasions, such as Iraq. The war against ISIS was better conducted, I think - airpower, advisors, and special forces teaming up with allies on the ground. The key is to keep the pressure on terrorist groups so they don't recover, as they did after 2011 when President Obama withdrew US forces from Iraq.
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They are based on fear, honor, and interest - as the Greek general turned historian Thucydides wrote nearly 2,500 years ago. Economics are certainly a crucial aspect of national security, but they are not the only reason why nations resort to the military instrument of power.
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What is your opinion of Eisenhower's warning of the military industrial complex?
Eisenhower grew up in an era when the United States did not maintain a large standing military. He wanted to return to that policy, but the creation of the national security state during the Cold War prevented a return to the past. His warning about the military-industrial complex may have been heartfelt, but until the Cold War was over it was not going away. After the fall of the Soviet Union the defense industry shrunk dramatically, only to resurge after 9/11.
How equipped is the military to perform widespread domestic tasks like dispensing vaccines to the general population? Is this a reasonable solution?
We do not need the military to dispense vaccines to the general population. We have a strong pharmacy system that can get this done - as it does every year with the annual flu vaccine. We do not need to reinvent the wheel here.
Have you ever seen combat?
Yes, I was a brigade commander in Baghdad and Karbala in 2003-2004 for thirteen months of combat, and then served as executive officer to Gen. David Petraeus for fifteen months in Iraq in 2007-2008. I've been shot at, rocketed, mortared, and targeted with roadside bombs, and hit back with artillery and air strikes in support of my soldiers in close combat with the enemy. My memoir, "Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq," details my first tour in the Iraq War. My brigade, the Ready First Combat Team (1st Brigade, 1st Armored Division), was awarded a Presidential Unit Citation for collective valor in combat. I earned a Bronze Star for valor for the fighting in Karbala in April-May 2004.
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Thank you for your service
It was an honor to serve.
I come from a big military family and have many active duty friends. It seems to me Trump is widely very popular among servicemembers. Here's my question. In my lifetime, no president has dodged the draft more times, nor disrespected servicemembers more, nor undermined leadership/brass more than President Trump. Considering all this, and the fact that he's a billionaire socialite from Manhattan, how do you account for his widespread popularity in the military? I'm seriously asking, btw. Genuinely curious about your take.
I think that many military members initially approved of President Trump because they believed he supported the military and was willing to increase defense spending. These views have changed over time as more information leaks about the president's actual feelings about people who serve in uniform. A Military Times poll released on August 31 found that "In the latest results — based on 1,018 active-duty troops surveyed in late July and early August — nearly half of respondents (49.9 percent) had an unfavorable view of the president, compared to about 38 percent who had a favorable view...Among all survey participants, 42 percent said they “strongly” disapprove of Trump’s time in office."
Are you associated with the Lincoln project?
I am associated with Operation Grant, which is a group of Ohio Republicans who are supporting Joe Biden for president. I was a "Never Trumper" back in 2016, and my position regarding President Trump has not changed.
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What could the president have done to change your mind?
Had President Trump after the 2016 election stopped his tweeting, listened to his advisors (some of whom were good, at least in the first couple of years), stopped his attack on immigrants, refrained from supporting white supremacists, and focused on governing, I might have been more supportive. But then he wouldn't be Donald Trump.
What, if anything, do you believe should be taken away from the Battle of Ganjgal?
Never leave your base without dedicated fire support and a standby quick reaction force at the ready.
Why didn't you branch Infantry?
LOL - said no tanker ever!
Seriously, when I was at West Point we were introduced to the various branches of the Army, including infantry, armor, field artillery, engineers, signal corps, etc. I really enjoyed the week we spent with tanks and armored cavalry at Fort Knox, and I decided to branch armor.
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Do you have any thoughts on the Mobile Protected Firepower program? I yearn for a tracked vehicle in my IBCT.
We keep relearning old lessons. The Army discovered in WWII that every infantry division needed tank support, so it added a tank battalion to the infantry division TO&E. After Korea Army added a second tank battalion to the mix. Fast forward fifty years and the Army created IBCTs without tanks in them. I hope the Mobile Protected Firepower program comes to fruition - crossing the deadly ground requires those capabilities.
How do you feel about Trump instating a new federal judge during an election and during covid?
I think you mean installing a new Supreme Court Justice, Amy Coney Barrett. Hypocritical as hell - the Senate couldn't be bothered to vote on Merrick Garland's appointment 8 months before the election in 2016, but the Senate Republicans didn't event wait until Ruth Bader Ginsburg was in the grave to begin confirming her replacement, which they accomplished in just five weeks.
The Supreme Court is too powerful and needs to be reformed. Here's my idea: Pass an amendment to limit Supreme Court Justice terms to 18 years, and stagger them so each president gets to nominate one in his/her first and third years in office. The court would turn over every 18 years, keeping 9 justices on the bench. Not quite lifetime appointments, but still lengthy. And every president would be guaranteed two nominees, instead of the mortality crapshoot we have now.
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This is a popular proposal, which I personally think is a great idea as well. It's important to note that this will not require a constitutional amendment. The Constitution grants Congress the power to establish and setup the courts (in Article 3, Section 1), which they have done under Title 28 of USC. They can modify this law at anytime, which may affect the duties of the Justices, size of the court, or to apply limits. For example, they made significant changes in 1891 and 1911 which eliminated the need for Supreme Court justices to "ride circuit" and travel around hearing cases. Similarly the proposal by FDR to pack the courts was a simple change to the law, rather than a constitutional amendment, as the number of justices is set at 9 by USC 28, not the Constitution itself.
Supreme Court Justices serve lifetime appointments on the Court, in accordance with Article III of the United States Constitution.
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Some constitutional scholars disagree with you. Kermit Roosevelt, a law professor at UPenn's law school recently wrote: "This proposal is lawful under the Constitution. First, Congress has the authority to change the size of the court and has done so repeatedly throughout history. Second, federal judges are constitutionally entitled to "hold their offices" during good behavior and not have their salaries reduced. This plan does not diminish salaries, and it is consistent with a current US law (28 US Code § 371(b)) that states explicitly that district and circuit judges who take senior status "retain the office." It follows that our legislators can assign senior status to justices, as well." https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/30/opinions/supreme-court-term-limits-law-roosevelt-vassilas/index.html As a practical matter, if Congress were to pass this law under a Biden presidency (which is plausible, given that the House is already considering it as H.R. 8424), it most certainly will be contested by somebody, so the current Supreme Court which would need to rule on whether this was permissible or not. Since it's written not to apply to them, and only apply to new Justices going forward, I would expect a fair hearing at least.
Which is why I prefer a Constitutional amendment that would apply to all justices, including those now serving. A threat by the Democrats to pack to the court (should they win control of the Senate) might be enough to convince the Republicans to back the measure.
Do you feel Paula Broadwell's punishment was adequate?
As far as I know she was stripped of her security clearance, which was an adequate response by the Army.
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I agree that the Iraq War was misguided, and I argued as much when the war started (I was a colonel attending the US Army War College, so I had no say in the matter). On the other hand, our support of the Syrian Defense Forces and the Iraqi Army in battling ISIS was an effort worth the cost in blood and treasure, as the destruction of that terrorist group made both the United States and our European and Middle Eastern allies safer.
What would your advice be to the men and women who have taken an path to protect the country from all threats foreign and domestic, if the person inhabiting the white house refuses to step down after the election if he loses?
This is a question on many people's mind right now. My advice to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs would be to stay out of the political thicket, and allow the legislative and judicial branches work out the outcome of the election. A good example is the Hayes-Tilden election of 1876, which was contested until two days before inauguration day. But Congress came up with a political solution to the issue, keeping the military out of the equation.
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As a 16yr Army combat veteran I agree completely! I was on a CMATT team for the MNFTI mission 2007-8. I knew the mission intent and did the job, but trying to instill logistical discipline in part-time soldiers being paid poorly(constant theft) was frustrating. When ISIS rolled thru Iraq I was not surprised. I am glad we have a system to handle our political issues.
Thanks for your service on the team during the Surge.
Post-1991, do you think the US military has become less proficient in all-out conventional conflict against near-peer adversaries (Russia, China) as a result of engagements in the Middle East against weak state militaries or non-state organisations, eg by taking air superiority for granted?
It didn't happen post-1991, but the wars of 9/11 required different skills sets and equipment that dulled our edge in conventional combat. The services are regaining those competencies today, albeit in stiff competition with Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
Do you remember a translator to General Petraeus named Odi?
A common misconception about the Interwar Years is that the nickname for World War I, "The War to End All Wars", was literal and World War II came as a surprise to the people of the world. If this was true, firstly, it would've been called "The War to End War" and, secondly, it would make you think that everyone must've had some sort of learning disability in those days, as the Interwar Years saw their fair share of conflict. These are just a couple of said conflicts. Red Terror: The Russian Civil War, 1918-1922 Though wars often happen for a multitude of reasons, they often have a central theme that can more easily be explained as the cause. The Russian Civil War is probably the best example, as it can essentially all be blamed on a single man: Tsar Nicholas II. Succeeding Alexander III in 1894, he is, quite possibly, the worst monarch at least in the history of Europe-not in terms of cruelty but just in terms of not being good at his job. By 1904, when things really started to go downhill for him and the Russian Empire as a result, he was the last true absolute monarch in Europe, with all others being constitutional in one way or another. But the Tsar still refused to comply to the people’s demands to reform or resign. Instead, he decided that he wanted to expand the Russian Empire in the Far East and revive Russian nationalism. He saw the perfect opportunity when Russian and Japanese diplomats disagreed over who should get how much of Korea and Manchuria. Suddenly and violently, on February 8, 1904, Japanese warships attacked the Russian Far East Fleet at Port Arthur. Three hours later, Japan declared war on Russia, and the Russo-Japanese War began. Russian forces quickly fortified their positions along the Yalu River but were scared off by a Japanese bushido attack, retreating to Port Arthur. Japanese forces besieged the warm-water port from the land and sea and the Tsar had to figure out how to break said siege. The Trans-Siberian Railroad, which would connect the European portion of Russia to the Far East, wasn’t complete and all other fleets were in Europe. Unable to decide, Nicholas decided to do both, sending reinforcements over the incomplete railroad and sending the Baltic Fleet to the Pacific Ocean. While still in the Baltic Sea, Russian warships, believing them to be Japanese, fired on British ships, causing them to close off the Suez Canal for the Russians. As a result, the Russian ships were forced to travel around Africa, often firing on themselves and purchasing exotic animals that would kill crew members-one captain even purchased a snake that wouldn’t let him near the mast. Shortly after the Siege of Port Arthur ended, which was the entire reason why they had been sent, Russian troops on land finally arrived but were defeated by the Japanese in the largest battle on land before World War I: the Battle of Mukden. The Baltic Fleet finally arrived, but was crushed by the smaller but more powerful Japanese fleet in the Battle of Tsushima. The situation was grim for the Russians, with the people rioting in the capital, St. Petersburg, and the only fleet left, the Black Sea Fleet, mutinying. Finally, on September 5, 1905, the Treaty of Portsmouth was signed and the war ended in Japanese victory. But, I digress-this is about the Russian Civil War, not the Russo-Japanese War. That year, pressured by the people, the Tsar formed the Duma, which was like a senate or parliament in a democracy where the people could vote on government decisions. There was just one problem: it was absolutely useless, as he could overrule its decision at any time. But things were relatively quiet until June 1914, when Serbian terrorist Gavrillo Princip killed Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir presumptive to the Austro-Hungarian throne, causing Austria-Hungary to declare war on Serbia. Russia, in accordance with previous treaties, declared war on Austria-Hungary, Germany declared war on it, France declared war on Germany, and World War I began. Immediately, it was a disaster for the Russians, with casualties skyrocketing in the opening months of fighting. This patterns would continue for years, with Russian forces only seeing some notable success in Brusilov Offensive. The Germans sent Vladimir Lenin, a Communist revolutionary who had been exiled to Switzerland, to stir up the masses. He succeeded and, in the February Revolution, forced the Tsar to abdicate. The Russian Empire was dissolved and was replaced by the Provisional Government, led by Alexander Kerensky. However, they opted to stay in the war, further angering the people. In the October Revolution, the Provisional Government was deposed and the Russian Civil War began, pitting the Red Army, or Bolsheviks, against the White Army, or the Loyalists. Immediately, the Red Army seized various infrastructure and endorsed an election within the Duma in January 1918. They didn’t win many seats but that didn’t matter, as they dismissed it before the vote could take effect. They then began murdering those who advocated for any ideology other than Communism-democracy, anarchism, constitutional monarchism, etc. They also shut down local institutions and nationalized industries. On March 3, 1918, the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk was signed and Russia finally pulled itself out of World War I. All manpower was now used to fight the civil war. As it stood, the Loyalists were the dominant power, holding the capital of Russia, which had been moved from St. Petersburg, which had been renamed Petrograd in 1914, to Moscow because the Germans got too close. Lenin believed in a worldwide revolution, with the working class rising up worldwide with the Bolsheviks to guide them. However, he decided to abandon this and, instead, settled on “Socialism in One Country”, but did want to promote Communism and the rise of Communist parties in other countries. As such, the Bolsheviks created the Comintern in 1919. Back in 1918, though, the Whites hoped to reinstall Nicholas II and the House of Romanov in power. However, these dreams were shattered when, in July 1918, he and his family were murdered in Yekaterinburg. This weakened White resolve and, after a string of major defeats, like the Battle of Tsaritsyn, and, on October 25, 1922, the White Army surrendered and the Russian Civil War ended. In the end, 386,213 people were killed, 259,213 Bolshevik and 127,000 White. Five nations-Poland, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia-won their independence, though various other Russian states, like Belorussia and the Ukraine, would temporarily break off. In 1923, the Bolshevik government in Russia, known as the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, also known simply as the Russian SFSR or just Soviet Russia, became the Soviet Union, with the Red Army as its military and Lenin as its first general secretary, renaming Petrograd to Leningrad and Tsaritsyn to Stalingrad. However, it wouldn’t be until their victory over the Germans in World War II when they would finally reassert their status as a world power. While they were able to recover most of the states that broke off during the revolution, others were a bit trickier... The War Within the War: The Polish-Soviet War, 1919-1921 Poland has a history of fighting foreign aggressors, one of the most recent ones being the Polish-Soviet War. However, we must first look at the one before that: the Polish-Russian War, in 1792. Back then, Poland was part of a dual monarchy a bit like Austria-Hungary called the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which had been formed in 1569. The Poles, ultimately, lost the war and became a part of the Russian Empire, though parts would also be given to Prussia and Austria, later Germany and Austria-Hungary. When World War I broke out, Polish lands were heavily scarred as were the people, both physically and mentally. It was bad, but Polish nationalists saw the perfect opportunity to win Poland independence. A Polish statesman and nationalist named Józef Piłsudski suggested that the Poles be more active-fight for the empire so the empire would fight for them, even though which empire he was talking about was unclear. From 1915 onward, the Germans marketed themselves as the liberators of the Polish from Russian subjugation and even formed a government with a constitution, the Kingdom of Poland. It didn’t have a government or territory, but that was besides the point. Piłsudski, foreseeing German defeat, encouraged Polish soldiers to swear no oath and the future looked bright for the dream of an independent Poland. As World War I came to a close, the map of Europe changed drastically. Woodrow Wilson made special note on Polish independence in his 14 Points presented in the Treaty of Versailles. Finally, it happened: Poland became independent as the Second Polish Republic was formed with Piłsudski as its first president. However, it was a tad bit smaller than it probably should have been, but they were able to gain some more land following the Greater Poland Uprising. Lenin, the leader of the Bolsheviks in the still ongoing Russian Civil War, believed that once the White Army had been defeated, the emerging breakaway states would come running back to them and rejoin Russia. He also saw Poland as the bridge to Germany, which he would need to cross in order for the Red Army link up with German socialists and conduct a successful revolution, which would expand and create an entirely Communist Europe. Piłsudski realized that war was imminent and decided that, rather than wait for it to start, they should simply start it themselves. And so, on Valentine’s Day 1919, Polish forces launched an offensive into Soviet Russia and the Polish-Soviet War began. The initial Polish advance was slow but steady, but they had to get things done if it was to be a serious war. Diplomacy was conducted immediately. Piłsudski wanted to form a federation of friendly states revolving around Poland. But that would have to wait. In the meantime, Hungary and Romania agreed to send arms but Poland only got an ally in what was left of Ukraine. But diplomacy wasn’t the only issue. Logistics were also a big problem, as the Polish infrastructure had been built by three different empires. Despite this, the Poles were determined to win. In early 1920, Polish and Ukrainian forces began a southern offensive that Piłsudski claimed was to restore the Ukrainian state. In reality, this alliance was only temporary, as the Poles and Ukrainians hated each other. By May 1920, this joint force reached Kiev and had scored some earlier, easier victories. Around the same time, the Russian Civil War was drawing to a close, and Lenin believed that since it was time to go on the offensive against the White Army, it was also time to do the same against Poland. Leon Trotsky, the Soviet Commissar of Military Affairs, thought it was a bad idea to charge west so soon, but he still had to do it. The Soviets were to attack on two fronts-a northern front to Poland and a southern front to Ukraine-and it was Trotsky’s job to coordinate this joint offensive. The Soviets took several victories, with Mikhail Tukhachevsky leading in the north and Josef Stalin in the south. Now fighting a direct foe with greater numbers and organization, the Polish retreated all the way back to the capital, Warsaw. Every Pole with something one could use as a weapon would fight. Tukhachevsky needed the support of Stalin’s forces, but he disobeyed ordered and continued to besiege Lwow, determined to take the glory for himself. Nonetheless, there was still a good chance that Tukhachevsky could take Warsaw, so Piłsudski employed a risky plan: he placed his troops insanely close to the Soviets’ southern flank. When the time was right, he launched a counter-attack, catching them off guard and routing them. Today, the Battle of Warsaw is also remembered as the Miracle of the Vistula. Legendary Polish cavalry attacked Stalin’s forces at Lwow, routing them, as well, in the last cavalry battle in history: the Battle of Komarow, wherein Soviet cavalry outnumbered the Poles by 10-to-1, but were still defeated. With the Red Army rendered ineffective, Trotsky attempted to sue for peace. After the Poles got one last victory at the Battle of Minsk, both parties were exhausted and Piłsudski, pressured by western powers like Britain, France, and the US, allowed negotiations to begin. Finally, on March 18, 1921, the Peace of Riga was signed and the war ended. In the end, an estimated 114-117,000 people were killed, about 67-70,000 Soviet and 47,000 Polish. Ukraine was split between Poland and the Soviets-for the sake of simplicity, we’ll say that Poland didn’t get much, just Lwow and all of Ukraine west of it, and the Soviets got the rest. Piłsudski denounced the peace and Poland’s relations with her neighbors were destroyed. The new Polish border with the now Soviet Union was undefendable and economically unviable, which slightly soured their victory. But in the end, it was probably for the best that Poland won. If they hadn’t, the Soviet triumph would pave the way for a socialist Germany, then France, and on and on and on until all of Europe became socialist or, more likely, Communist. But not all victories are so good... End of an Era: The Chinese Civil War, 1927-1949, and the Second Sino-Japanese War, 1937-1945 For centuries, China was ruled by dynasties, supposedly starting with the Xia Dynasty in 2070 B.C. and followed by, in more definite history, the Shang, Zhou, Qin, Han, Jin, and Song, with the Mongols forming the Yuan Dynasty only to be replaced by the Chinese Ming, which later succeeded by the Shun and, finally, by the Manchurian Qing, which would turn out to be the last dynasty, rising to power in 1636 but not seizing control over all of China until 1644. Various religious and political ideologies justified the existence of these dynasties, like the Mandate of Heaven. Basically, the Emperor was chosen by heaven and his dynasty would rule until some sort of major disaster, like a hurricane, earthquake, or plague struck. It was believed that these happened because the dynasty was no longer fit to rule and they were succeeded by a new dynasty. Since the Chinese went through dynasties like socks, you can see why people started to lose their faith in the system as a whole. It also didn’t help that these systems were heavily outdated. Around the world, democracies and secular governments were taking hold but China refused to adapt to the changing political climate and suffered for it. In the 19th Century, western merchants and colonizers turned to China but the Qing chose to isolate themselves rather than participate. Following the Opium Wars, the main European powers-Britain, France, Germany, and Russia-as well as Japan and even, though to a lesser degree, the US set up spheres of influence in the humiliated country. Many Chinese ports controlled by western powers would benefit only them, with cheap labor in the Chinese workers and firm control over trade. Many believed it unacceptable, but what could the Qing do? Many regions decided to strike out their own, becoming more self-sufficient and further degrading Qing influence. To survive, China also had to modernize and strengthen itself, which the Qing, corrupt and incompetent, failed at, as well. After the First Sino-Japanese War, which saw China go from the Asian powerhouse to an Asian powerhouse and lose territory to the Japanese, a fierce anti-foreigner sentiment manifested in the Boxer Rebellion. The boxers, a secret anti-foreigner society in China, rose up wanting to restore the Dynasty’s glory days and the imperial court was divided on whether to support or suppress them. The foreigners took matters into their own hands and occupied Beijing without a declaration of war. As the 20th Century dawned, the Qing had still failed to modernize and improve and it didn’t help that, in 1908, Emperor Zaitian, or the Guangxu Emperor, was succeeded by Pu-Yi, or the Xuantong Emperor, who was just two years old at the time. Exiled revolutionary Sun Yat-sen believed that, because China had only continued to stagnate under the rule of a child, decided that it was time to return to China to start another revolution and replace the Dynasty with a republic. He had a history of failed attempts, so many had their doubts, but Sun was adamant that his three principles of nationalism, democracy, and livelihood would prevail and make a better China. In the ensuing Xinhai Revolution, there were several uprisings, including the Qin-lian Uprising, Gengxu New Army Uprising, and Second Guangzhou Uprising that didn’t do very well until the Wuchang Uprising, which began before all parties involved were ready and it immediately seemed bleak, but this time, they had the support of most of the military. Many provinces broke away and their delegates came together to form the Republic of China, with the capital in Nanjing and Yat-sen as president. Despite both the Republic and Dynasty claiming power, it truly lied in the hands of who had the bigger army, that being the Qing. The general of the largest Qing army, Yuan Shekai, gladly switched sides and forced Pu-Yi to abdicate in exchange for the presidency. By February 1912, the Qing Dynasty was gone and Shekai was president of China, with Yat-sen forming the nationalist Kuomintang party within his government. Shekai decided to ditch Yat-sen’s principles and, instead, transformed the republic into a stratocracy, leaving the problems that should’ve been fixed by the revolution in place. Shekai, however, saw opposition as an affront and exiled him again in 1913. Meanwhile, he tried to fix the issue of disunity and only made it worse. He declared himself emperor in 1916, but by then, he had no supporters left, so he resigned and died soon after. As bad as Shekai’s rule was, it had kept the country together and, as a result, regionalism peaked and many states broke off from the republic, declaring independence and ruled by warlords even with their own laws and currencies. These states often fought so Yat-sen returned and advocated for unification. He was paid no heed and change only came when the Treaty of Versailles was signed in June 1919 and German colonies in China were given to Japan rather than returned to China. Demonstrations in Beijing cried out for the abolishment of the warlords, the death of defunct traditions, and the repulsion of the Japanese for the creation of a new, strong, and unified China. In 1921, the Kuomintang became the leading party in the republic and Yat-sen formed a military government to address these issues. They inspired many groups in China, most notably the Chinese Communist Party, or CCP, which allied itself with the Kuomintang in 1922. Both the CCP and Kuomintang knew that the warlords would have to be defeated to unify China, so they formed the First United Front. Yat-sen inconveniently died in 1925 and, being such an iconic figure, even being called the Father of the Republic of China, his death left a void. Said void would be filled by his young protégé, Chiang Kai-shek, who was worried about the alliance with the CCP, as they got the support of the peasants off the back of the Front’s successes, which he saw as a threat to the structure of the Chinese government. After the United Front had taken Hangzhou, Shanghai, Nanjing, and Beijing in 1927, the warlords were no longer a threat and the alliance between the Kuomintang and CCP was now an inconvenience. Chiang initiated the White Terror, which, after just a few months, led to the near destruction of the CCP. Finally, on August 1, 1927, the Communists revolted and the Chinese Civil War began. The Communists began fighting with an insurgency in the Jiangxi Mountains. In 1930, the Soviets took an interest in the Communists’ efforts, seeing the ongoing Great Depression as the start of a world revolution by the workers. So, the Comintern taught the Chinese how their victory would be the first step in the revolution and told them to launch a counterattack against the Kuomintang, which they did and failed horribly at. Li Lisan, the leader of the CCP, with his reputation tarnished and the Comintern refusing to take the blame, was replaced by a group of students from Moscow called the 28 Bolsheviks. Meanwhile, Kai-shek’s government had, thus far, been characterized with social unease as he continually failed to implement Yat-sen’s reforms, allowing the Japanese to annex Manchuria in 1931. In 1934, Kai-shek fielded his largest army to flush out the Communists, who had resisted using Mao Zedong’s guerilla warfare tactics. Attempting to escape seemed better than just awaiting their fate. A plan was made to resettle Communist forces in the northern province of Shaanxi, going through almost 10,000 kilometers some of the most inhospitable terrain China had to offer if they could even break the encirclement. When the Communists lost half of their manpower just trying to cross the Xiang River, though the de jure leaders were still the 28 Bolsheviks but de facto leadership passed to Zedong, who opted to continue on the path and was officially made the leader in 1935. They got to Shaanxi with just 10% of their forces left, but they got there, nonetheless. The Communists quickly set about traveling to villages, setting up bases and recruiting the villagers. Just having one allowed them to organize and set up more along the countryside. Zedong believed that they would be overrun and forced to retreat, so he planned to continue fighting a guerilla war until the Kuomintang had been sufficiently weakened, ending the conflict with conventional warfare to seize power. Kai-shek had already been pursuing the Communists but he tenacity wasn’t appreciated by those who believed that a Japanese invasion was imminent. In December 1936, his generals took him hostage and forced him to form the Second United Front with the CCP to combat the Japanese. Though he would, reluctantly, cooperate and killed his generals soon after, he still cooperated. The Japanese threat was realized when, in July 1937, Japan invaded, declaring war on the Kuomintang and CCP. Kai-shek didn’t trust the Communists, only causing them to lose ground repeatedly. Zedong was able to recruit more people to his cause using this and the handful of victories the Chinese won against the Japanese. When the US declared war on Japan following the Bombing of Pearl Harbor in December 1941, Kai-shek decided to let the Americans do the fighting for him, a sound strategy that, however, lost him public respect. When the Japanese were on the backfoot, it was a mad dash to see who could liberate more territory faster-the Soviet-backed CCP or American-backed Kuomintang. When the Japanese officially surrendered on August 15, 1945, US ambassador Patrick Hurley attempted to broker peace between the CCP and Kuomintang. Surprisingly, both sides agreed to prepare to form a coalition government, united army, and temporary council. These negotiations, however, would never be finalized as Manchuria’s liberation would decide the fate of China. When the Soviets invaded Manchuria and drove out the Japanese, they handed over Japanese stockpiles to help them fight the Kuomintang while the US, despite claiming neutrality, got the Kuomintang to Manchuria using American ships and aircraft. They were able to drive the CCP into the hills by December and when they began to prepare a counter-attack, the US tried to broker a truce between them. Zedong used this truce to better prepare for the Communist counter-offensive but, when the truce ended in July 1946, the Kuomintang had the upper hand. They were able to take Shaanxi in March 1947 but Zedong’s use of guerilla warfare in Manchuria slowly bled their army dry of resources and manpower. By 1948, it was clear that the CCP would win in Manchuria, but Kai-shek remained determined. That March, Manchuria fell and, by February 1949, so had Tianjin, Beijing, Nanjing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. On October 1, 1949, Zedong declared the People’s Republic of China with himself as Chairman of the CCP and Beijing, the capital. Kai-shek and what was left of the Kuomintang fled to Taiwan and declared the capital Taipei, though he wouldn’t surrender until May 1, 1950. In the end, an estimated 1,750,000 lives-1,500,000 Kuomintang and just 250,000 Communist-were lost in just the last two years of the war. Taiwan is still officially the Republic of China and Kai-shek would claim sovereignty over China all the way up to his death in 1975. Taiwan even represented China in the UN until 1970. Zedong finally attempted to modernize the nation in the Great Leap Forward and, though he was successful, also caused a famine that killed 30 million people. Now, we have one last war to look at... Testing Grounds: The Spanish Civil War, 1936-1939 In the 19th Century, there was strong opposition to the Spanish monarchy, resulting in pushes for liberalism and more rights-the government was even replaced by the Spanish First Republic between 1873 and 1874. Following the effective destruction of the Spanish Empire after the Spanish-American War and several revolutions, King Alfonso XIII of Spain went to war with the Riffians in Morocco between 1920 and 1926 in the Rif War, which the Spanish won with French support but lost the King a lot of support from the Spanish Army. In 1931, he fled the country and moved to Rome, though he did not formally abdicate, and would remain there until his death in 1941. Meanwhile, the local Spanish government declared the Spanish Second Republic, with Niceto Alcala-Zamora as president. He and his committee promised modernization, allowing the workers to form trade unions, giving land back to the people, secularizing the government, more rights for women, and making Catalonia and the Basque Country autonomous states. All these revolutionary ideas alienated the right wing and more concerned as the changes came slowly but when they did, they also left the left wing disappointed. These changed were further slowed down by the Great Depression and, in response, the Anarchist Confederation, also known as the Confederación Nacional del Trabajo or CNT for short, was formed. They rallied strikes and alienated the far left in the ensuing government crackdown. In protest, they refused to vote in the 1933 general election, which produced a result they were unhappy with. The Spanish Confederation of Autonomous Rights, also known as the Confederación Española de Derechas Autónomas, or CEDA for short, under Catholic conservative Jose Maria Gil-Robles, won the most seats and reversed most of the promised reforms that had been done. The military and cabinet were purged of leftist supporters, entering a period often called the “Black Two Years”. The CNT rebelled in 1934, rallying anarchists and Communists to rise up in Asturias but were crushed by the Army of Africa, led by General Francisco Franco. The workers suffered brutal reprisals and the fighting in the streets foreshadowed what was to come. Realizing that they would have to stand together to combat the right wing, various left wing supporters-socialists, liberals, anarchists, etc.-formed the Popular Front. Right wing reactions also intensified, believing that there was a Jewish-Bolshevik conspiracy to make Spain Communist. The Fascist Falange Party was formed by Jose Antonio Primo de Rivera and politics became very violent and partisan-instead of disagreeing with someone, they had to be silenced. The 1936 general election saw the Popular Front win a narrow victory, transitioning the government’s alignment from right to left and Manuel Azana became president. Primo de Rivera was arrested and, in an attempt to prevent a coup, the military was reorganized. Jose Sanjurjo, who had attempted a coup in 1932, conspired another, making deals with various right wing supporters-fascists, nationalists, monarchists, etc. The government became paranoid as signs of disloyalty popped up everywhere. On July 12, 1936, Falange gunmen killed a socialist police officer in Madrid, the capital, and the police scrambled to arrest everyone at all related. They asked the monarchist Jose Calvo Sotelo to come down to the local police station which he agreed to, but was killed along the way. It was clear that there was only one way this could end: in fire. The coup was ready and the government wasn’t. Now was the perfect time. The people wanted arms to help defend the republic but they, not wanting to admit that they lost control, refused. In response, they armed themselves with whatever they could get their hands on. On July 17, 1936, the coup began in Morocco, as did the Spanish Civil War. The Army of Africa quickly secured Morocco as Franco launched the coup and generals across Spain rose up, fighting leftist militias and police forces. Many cities fell, but many didn’t. From here on out, as they often are, the military will be called the Nationalists and the leftists and police, the Republicans. Seville, Castile, and Leon all fell to the Nationalists but the Republicans held on to the Basque Country, Catalonia, Valencia, and, most importantly, Madrid. No matter what, if you were an adult, you fought. Your daily schedule was get up, eat breakfast, fight on the frontlines, come home if you were still alive, eat dinner and go to bed. Any suspected of dissent were executed by the Nationalists and the Republicans destroyed everything that represented the old ways. In the disorder, the government wanted only to survive but the anarchists and Communists wanted to instate their ideas. The only thing keeping them together was their hatred of the Nationalists. When Sotelo died in a plane crash, the Nationalists’ plans were thrown a bit out of whack. They established a stratocracy with General Miguel Cabanellas heading it temporarily. The balance of power seemed fairly even and the Nationalists had a trump card in the Army of Africa, but they were stuck in Morocco. They had the support of Germany and Italy, under fellow right wing dictators Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini, so they called supported them, sending them supplies and landing the Army of Africa in Seville, which would push on to Madrid. They crushed the Republicans in the Battle of Merida that August. In Spain, the German Condor Legion would prove the effective of their new Luftwaffe and their tanks on the ground. Nationalist territory, which had been separated, was now connected and Franco became the commander-in-chief of the Nationalists. This position was cemented when he rescued Nationalist forces in the Siege of Alcazar and was promoted to caudillo and united the various elements of the Nationalists. The Republicans, on the other hand, were much less organized and the old cabinet was replaced with a Communist one that tried to unify the republic in their own image, angering the anarchists. When the Siege of Madrid began, the government fled to Valencia, with only their supporters living in the city left to fight the Nationalists back. All over the world, volunteers joined the fight for the Republicans and the Soviet Union sent arms and military advisors. But Madrid refused to surrender. So, the Nationalists just took everything around Madrid, pushing east and capturing the isolated Basque Country in 1937, which would famously be scarred by Condor Legion bombings. The Republicans attempted an offensive in 1938, but this failed horribly, as they lost 10 gallons of blood for every 10 meters gained. Franco divided the Republicans between Catalonia and Valencia. The Republicans fought back at the Battle of the Ebro, the longest battle of the war and yet another Nationalist victory. Their fate was sealed. Now, the only thing left to do was lose. In early 1939, Franco took Catalonia and, on March 26, Madrid finally surrendered. He proclaimed victory for the Nationalists on April Fool’s Day and the Spanish Civil War ended. In the end, 285,000 people were killed, 175,000 Republican and 110,000 Nationalist. The Spanish State was formed with Franco at its head until his death in 1975 and the creation of the modern Kingdom of Spain. Many former Republicans hid, escaped, or died. To this day, the human cost of the war is still felt and the divide between left and right remains not just in Spain, but across the world... I apologize for errors, grammatical or historical, and realize this isn't short, but I wrote it for no reason in quarantine and wanted to share it somewhere. Hope you enjoyed!
North Korean military base. Maps / North Korean military base. Info; Nearby (80) Like. Tweet. Share. Pin. 8 ... Chongju, Democratic People's Republic of Korea (KP) This is an interesting site. Things to note: - What are the odd structures at the northern edge ... I've updated the coordinates... Sign In. About Us. FAQ. Links. Tools. Stats. Policies. North Korean military base (Google Maps). This is an interesting site. Things to note: - What are the odd structures at the northern edge (3 rows of 7) surounded by dirt? New buildings, comoflaged items, storage, missiles ??? - Round object in the NW corner at the end of the road ... Table of Contents. Long gone are the days of the late 1950s and 1960s, when North Korea held an economic and technological edge over its neighbor to the south, an edge that was also reflected in the military balance between the two sides. 1 Since then, economic mismanagement, the 1991 collapse of Pyongyang’s Soviet benefactor, and decades of accelerated South Korean economic growth have ... Google-Earthing the North Korean Military. Poking around Google Earth at a moment of geopolitical drama, I took a look at North Korea. Turns out that military installations are not only indicated by the Google Earth community, they’re described in some detail.. There are areas in several countries that have been left at low resolution at the request of the countries affected for security ... DISCLAIMER: Map locations are approximations for illustrative purposes only.Precise positioning has been deliberately avoided. This map is intended for a broad geographic overview only. This material was produced independently for NTI by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list: Enter Your Email Address . Do Not Sell My Personal Information The base is where North Korea is developing their submarine launched ballistic missiles. 6. Sino-ri - Coordinates are: 39°38'57.32"N 125°21'36.37"E. Sino-ri has been detailed by Beyond Parallel. 7. Sohae Satellite Launch Center - Coordinates are: 39°40'6.88"N 124°42'30.44"E 8. Taegwan - Coordinates are: 40°18'34.10"N 125°16'17.02"E 9. Pyongyang can place almost all its military aircraft in hardened--mostly underground--shelters. In 1990-91, North Korea activated four forward air bases near the DMZ, which increased its initial southward reach and decreased warning and reaction times for Seoul.
FLASH: North Korea bombed U.S. military bases in South ...
Thanks for watching ! SUBSCRIBE to receive more videos for free. U.S. Monitoring Possible North Korean Military Base in Syria Kim Jong-Un / Getty Images BY: ... Military Defense How Powerful is North Korea? North Korean Military Power N. Korean Army 2017 Subscribe 》https://goo.gl/1EVf93 Facebook 》https://go... Camp Humphreys is located about 40 miles south of Seoul, in South Korea. It's the largest overseas US military base in the world. Despite being only 60 miles... After more than 60 years, the U.S. is closing a military base in Seoul that has kept the region safe from North Korean threats. WSJ explores the historic com... The latest military discoveries of my Google Earth findings in North Korea. The satellite images are mostly from between 2011 and till the latest 03-2013 ima... North Korea shelled an island Tuesday where military exercises were taking place killing 2 South Korean marines. The Hermit Kingdom allowed international media to watch its largest ever military parade - part of the campaign to establish Kim Jong-il's youngest son as th... visit my page: www.facebook.com/TaxiphoneAlgerien or www.facebook.com/DZspoted Hi Kim Jong-un! The whole world knows your military capabilities :) This is the result of 2 hours scanning with Google Earth. If I keep on searching I might ... Leaked photos Kim Jong-Un doesn't want you to see!Subscribe to our channel: http://goo.gl/9CwQhgIf you’re fascinated by North Korea, but aren’t quite ready t...
